· US Group II light-grade base oils premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices extends rise.· US Group II heavy-grade premium to feedstock prices extends fall.· US Group II heavy-grade premium remains higher than historical levels; light-grade premium is closer to historical levels.· Still-wide heavy-grade premium incentivizes refiners to maximise output of that product.· Falling diesel premium to crude boosts attraction of producing more base oils, especially when the base oils premium to VGO remains high compared with pre-2021 levels.· Increasingly steep discount of US domestic spot prices to refiners’ posted prices points to persistent surplus volumes.· South Korea’s base oils exports to US show signs of slowing in April 2024, raising prospect of drop in Group III supplies reaching US at least through May 2024.· US Group III base oils premium to Group II N100/120 holds at lowest since Q1 2021.· Steep drop in Group III premium to Group II prices previously incentivized refiners to cut Group III output.· The incentive shows signs of having less impact this time in face of oversupply/muted demand for Group II base oils.· US Group II export prices hold at levels that sustain feasibility of regular arbitrage shipments.· Steady flow of cargoes load from US over past month bound for destinations like India..· Argentina’s base oils output pauses in March 2024, leaving the country wholly reliant on imports for additional supplies..· Argentina’s March base oils supply lags lube demand even with rise in imports, adds to signs of drop in country’s base oils stocks.· Argentina’s lower base oils stocks cushion against weak demand and high inflation, raise prospect of tighter supply if demand revives earlier than expected..· Europe’s Group I export prices maintain premium or narrower-than-usual discount to domestic prices.· Firm export prices contrast with still-wide US export price discount to US domestic prices.· Contrasting dynamic points to more plentiful surplus supply in US, tighter Group I availability in Europe.· Spain’s Group I base oils output falls to six-month low in Feb 2024, reflecting that trend.· Slowdown coincides with signs of dwindling surplus volumes from Italy during Q1 2024.· Europe’s base oils imports fall in Feb 2024 to lowest in more than five years amid lower-than-usual shipments from US and Mideast Gulf..· Slowdown in shipments adds to tighter regional supply during Q1 2024.· Tighter regional supply cushions against impact of weaker demand in Q1 2024, limiting size of any supply-build.· Premium-grade base oils exports from Spain show signs of staying high in April 2024, with more supplies remaining in Europe. .· Europe sees pick-up in delivery of shipments from UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Indonesia since late-March 2024.· Trend raises prospect of boosting Europe’s Group III base oils supply.· Trend would follow drop in global Group III base oils imports from the Middle East to seven-month low in Feb 2024..· Slowdown mostly reflects lower-than-usual shipments from Qatar for second month.· Drop in Group III shipments in first two months of 2024 impact Europe the most.· That dynamic could change after US Group III prices fall to discount to Europe prices.· Cargo from Qatar scheduled to reach Europe by end-April 2024, after Europe’s imports from Qatar almost halted in first two months of 2024.· China's base oils imports from Qatar and UAE surge in March 2024, adding to signs of change in trade flows from those markets..· US base oils exports to Kenya rise in Feb 2024 to multi-year high, cushioning impact of slowdown in shipments from Europe..· Markets like Kenya face prospect of attracting growing interest from markets with surplus supplies like US, and markets with growing production capacity, like India and Saudi Arabia.· Markets in Africa likely to show growing interest in such supplies amid prospect of slowdown in shipments from Europe. .· Global base oils exports to Egypt hold steady in Feb 2024 from previous month, slump vs year-earlier levels..· Slowdown from year-earlier levels reflects dip in supplies from Italy.· Trend likely to continue over coming months as supply from Italy tightens.· Trend would increase need for Egyptian buyers to line up supplies from alternative sources.· Prospect of tighter supply from Europe coincides with shipment of base oils from China to Egypt in March 2024 for first time in at least seven years.· Premium-grade base oils supply in UAE likely to get a boost as several shipments from South Korea arrive during final days of April 2024..Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 29 April.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 29 April.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 29 April.Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 29 April.Global base oils cargo flows: Week of 29 April
· US Group II light-grade base oils premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices extends rise.· US Group II heavy-grade premium to feedstock prices extends fall.· US Group II heavy-grade premium remains higher than historical levels; light-grade premium is closer to historical levels.· Still-wide heavy-grade premium incentivizes refiners to maximise output of that product.· Falling diesel premium to crude boosts attraction of producing more base oils, especially when the base oils premium to VGO remains high compared with pre-2021 levels.· Increasingly steep discount of US domestic spot prices to refiners’ posted prices points to persistent surplus volumes.· South Korea’s base oils exports to US show signs of slowing in April 2024, raising prospect of drop in Group III supplies reaching US at least through May 2024.· US Group III base oils premium to Group II N100/120 holds at lowest since Q1 2021.· Steep drop in Group III premium to Group II prices previously incentivized refiners to cut Group III output.· The incentive shows signs of having less impact this time in face of oversupply/muted demand for Group II base oils.· US Group II export prices hold at levels that sustain feasibility of regular arbitrage shipments.· Steady flow of cargoes load from US over past month bound for destinations like India..· Argentina’s base oils output pauses in March 2024, leaving the country wholly reliant on imports for additional supplies..· Argentina’s March base oils supply lags lube demand even with rise in imports, adds to signs of drop in country’s base oils stocks.· Argentina’s lower base oils stocks cushion against weak demand and high inflation, raise prospect of tighter supply if demand revives earlier than expected..· Europe’s Group I export prices maintain premium or narrower-than-usual discount to domestic prices.· Firm export prices contrast with still-wide US export price discount to US domestic prices.· Contrasting dynamic points to more plentiful surplus supply in US, tighter Group I availability in Europe.· Spain’s Group I base oils output falls to six-month low in Feb 2024, reflecting that trend.· Slowdown coincides with signs of dwindling surplus volumes from Italy during Q1 2024.· Europe’s base oils imports fall in Feb 2024 to lowest in more than five years amid lower-than-usual shipments from US and Mideast Gulf..· Slowdown in shipments adds to tighter regional supply during Q1 2024.· Tighter regional supply cushions against impact of weaker demand in Q1 2024, limiting size of any supply-build.· Premium-grade base oils exports from Spain show signs of staying high in April 2024, with more supplies remaining in Europe. .· Europe sees pick-up in delivery of shipments from UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Indonesia since late-March 2024.· Trend raises prospect of boosting Europe’s Group III base oils supply.· Trend would follow drop in global Group III base oils imports from the Middle East to seven-month low in Feb 2024..· Slowdown mostly reflects lower-than-usual shipments from Qatar for second month.· Drop in Group III shipments in first two months of 2024 impact Europe the most.· That dynamic could change after US Group III prices fall to discount to Europe prices.· Cargo from Qatar scheduled to reach Europe by end-April 2024, after Europe’s imports from Qatar almost halted in first two months of 2024.· China's base oils imports from Qatar and UAE surge in March 2024, adding to signs of change in trade flows from those markets..· US base oils exports to Kenya rise in Feb 2024 to multi-year high, cushioning impact of slowdown in shipments from Europe..· Markets like Kenya face prospect of attracting growing interest from markets with surplus supplies like US, and markets with growing production capacity, like India and Saudi Arabia.· Markets in Africa likely to show growing interest in such supplies amid prospect of slowdown in shipments from Europe. .· Global base oils exports to Egypt hold steady in Feb 2024 from previous month, slump vs year-earlier levels..· Slowdown from year-earlier levels reflects dip in supplies from Italy.· Trend likely to continue over coming months as supply from Italy tightens.· Trend would increase need for Egyptian buyers to line up supplies from alternative sources.· Prospect of tighter supply from Europe coincides with shipment of base oils from China to Egypt in March 2024 for first time in at least seven years.· Premium-grade base oils supply in UAE likely to get a boost as several shipments from South Korea arrive during final days of April 2024..Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 29 April.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 29 April.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 29 April.Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 29 April.Global base oils cargo flows: Week of 29 April