·        Asia’s base oils demand gets support from signs of tighter availability of Group I base oils especially.

·        China’s base oils demand faces slowdown over coming weeks during lunar new year holidays.

·        Seasonal rise in lube demand typically gathers pace after lunar new year holidays.

·        Strength of rise in demand likely to determine whether China will continue to absorb larger-than-usual volumes from regional market.

·        Weaker-than-expected lube consumption could trigger steeper slowdown in base oils demand as domestic blenders work down inventories.

·        China’s domestic Group II base oils prices hold firm vs diesel, edge down vs fob Asia prices.

·        Trend could point to firm demand and signs of sufficient domestic supply.

·        China’s domestic supply shows signs of extending rise in Jan 2024 after already rising to 21-month high in Dec 2023.

·        Demand shows signs of holding firm in southeast Asia.

·        Vietnam’s December base oils imports hold firm on rebound in supplies from Singapore.

·        Vietnam’s rising base oils imports contrast with weak demand growth in China and prospect of lower import requirements from India in coming months.

·        Trend highlights importance of markets like Vietnam for suppliers like Singapore and South Korea.

·        Surge in Vietnam’s imports from South Korea in 2023 reflect rising value/importance of the southeast Asian market.

·        Imports from South Korea almost match shipment volume from Singapore in 2023 amid rising competition to supply Vietnam market.

·        Singapore’s base oils exports to southeast Asia recover to more typical levels over past four weeks.

·        Recovery in shipments coincides with firmer volumes bound for China, contrasts with lower volumes to India.

·        India’s high base oils stocks could curb demand for some products unless prices for additional supplies are deemed to be competitive.

·        Volatility of crude oil prices could incentivize buyers with high stocks to trim their inventories to lock in profit and limit price exposure.

·        Firmer CFR India prices for products like bright stock point to steady demand and tighter availability of those products.

·        Signs of slowdown in flows of shipments from Saudi Arabia to India could boost demand for supplies from other sources.