Lube demand in some of Europe’s largest markets like France and Spain was more mixed in September, triggering a stronger seasonal pick-up in consumption at the end of the third quarter.Lube consumption still edged down, incentivizing blenders to maintain low stocks of finished lubricants and base oils.Expectations of healthy availability of supply and downward pressure on base oils prices in the fourth quarter of the year added to blenders’ incentive to limit their procurement plans.France’s lube consumption of less than 38,000 tonnes in September fell by 5% and for the fourth time in five months from year-earlier levels, according to Centre Professionel des Lubrifiants.The speed of the slowdown slowed from a 10% contraction in August.The smaller contraction mirrored a similar trend with Italy’s lube consumption in September.Spain’s lube consumption of almost 38,000 tonnes in September rose by 5% and for the second time in three months from year-earlier levels.Total lube consumption in those countries, combined with Italy, Portugal, Belgium and Poland, came to close to 138,000 tonnes in September.The volume fell by 0.5% and the fourth time in five months from year-earlier levels.But it rose by more than 34,000 tonnes, or 33%, from August, reflecting the seasonal boost after the summer holidays.The size of the increase outpaced the 29,000-tonne rise in consumption in September 2023 from the previous month.Blenders are likely to remain cautious even with signs of improving consumption in September.Any rise in Europe’s lube demand has usually been short-lived during the last three years.The prolonged fall in Europe’s lube consumption, and blenders’ moves to hold lower stocks, is likely to put additional pressure on base oils demand during the fourth quarter of the year.Blenders’ lower stocks could also muffle the impact of the seasonal drop in lube demand at year-end by curbing their need to work down existing stocks.The moves to procure smaller volumes more frequently could also trigger an earlier pick-up in demand at the beginning of next year..Asia’s September lube demand falls.Europe’s Aug Group III supply rises.US Sept base oils exports to Europe rise.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
