· Asia’s base oils demand likely to remain mixed, with muted buying interest in China and steady demand from India.· India’s more competitive prices versus China likely to continue to attract more supplies to that market.· India’s demand for very-light grades could ease in anticipation of pick-up in availability of supply in coming weeks..· Asia’s lube demand likely to rise in Q4 2023 from Q3 2023, and even more strongly in Q1 2024..· Seasonal and economic boost likely to lift lube demand over coming months.· Firmer demand would absorb more regional base oils supplies, curbing size of surplus and volumes available for other regions..· China’s September base oils demand rises to three-month high amid signs of stock-building ahead of expected seasonal pick-up in lube demand from end-Q3 2023..· China’s September base oils imports also rise to three-month high, adding to signs of stock-building..· Chinese blenders’ ongoing caution suggests stock-building may reflect moves to cover for drop in supplies from Taiwan in Q4 2023 rather than expectations of recovery in demand.· Signs of still-muted domestic lube demand raise prospect of slowdown in China’s requirements for overseas supplies as buyers focus on working down existing stocks first..· China’s September base oils exports fall to fourteen-month low, adding to signs of seasonal pick-up in domestic demand..· China’s exports to Singapore show signs of rising in October. · Any resumption of larger flows of exports from China would add to signs of weak lube demand, resulting in excess base oils supply..· Singapore’s September base oils exports fall to five-month low as shipments to China fall to lowest in more than six years..· Fall in shipments to China add to signs that any rise in country's lube demand remains muted, and blenders and distributors are consuming stocks relatively slowly.· Trend suggests China's demand for regional base oils supplies likely to stay muted, and Asia refiners should plan accordingly. .· Singapore’s September exports to India by contrast rise to highest in more than four years..· Trend highlights contrast with China and taps seasonal rise in India’s demand over coming months.· Trend reflects India’s increased reliance on supplies from Asia over coming months following pause in arbitrage shipments from US..· India’s demand for very-light-grade base oils likely to be restricted to supplies for production of finished lubricants.· India’s increasingly narrow domestic retail diesel premium to imported base oil cargo prices likely to dampen demand for base oils for other uses..· India’s more muted demand could complicate any moves to seek to ship surplus light-grade supplies from US to the country unless prices adjust to make the arbitrage workable again..· Pakistan’s base oils demand could rise after supplies fall in August while lube demand rises..· Lower supply and higher demand cut stocks, boosting need to replenish inventories.· Demand could get further support if lube consumption extends its recovery.· Shipments from South Korea and Singapore to Pakistan rebound in September; supplies would help to meet recent pick-up in demand. .Global base oils - week of Oct 30: Price outlook - arbitrage
· Asia’s base oils demand likely to remain mixed, with muted buying interest in China and steady demand from India.· India’s more competitive prices versus China likely to continue to attract more supplies to that market.· India’s demand for very-light grades could ease in anticipation of pick-up in availability of supply in coming weeks..· Asia’s lube demand likely to rise in Q4 2023 from Q3 2023, and even more strongly in Q1 2024..· Seasonal and economic boost likely to lift lube demand over coming months.· Firmer demand would absorb more regional base oils supplies, curbing size of surplus and volumes available for other regions..· China’s September base oils demand rises to three-month high amid signs of stock-building ahead of expected seasonal pick-up in lube demand from end-Q3 2023..· China’s September base oils imports also rise to three-month high, adding to signs of stock-building..· Chinese blenders’ ongoing caution suggests stock-building may reflect moves to cover for drop in supplies from Taiwan in Q4 2023 rather than expectations of recovery in demand.· Signs of still-muted domestic lube demand raise prospect of slowdown in China’s requirements for overseas supplies as buyers focus on working down existing stocks first..· China’s September base oils exports fall to fourteen-month low, adding to signs of seasonal pick-up in domestic demand..· China’s exports to Singapore show signs of rising in October. · Any resumption of larger flows of exports from China would add to signs of weak lube demand, resulting in excess base oils supply..· Singapore’s September base oils exports fall to five-month low as shipments to China fall to lowest in more than six years..· Fall in shipments to China add to signs that any rise in country's lube demand remains muted, and blenders and distributors are consuming stocks relatively slowly.· Trend suggests China's demand for regional base oils supplies likely to stay muted, and Asia refiners should plan accordingly. .· Singapore’s September exports to India by contrast rise to highest in more than four years..· Trend highlights contrast with China and taps seasonal rise in India’s demand over coming months.· Trend reflects India’s increased reliance on supplies from Asia over coming months following pause in arbitrage shipments from US..· India’s demand for very-light-grade base oils likely to be restricted to supplies for production of finished lubricants.· India’s increasingly narrow domestic retail diesel premium to imported base oil cargo prices likely to dampen demand for base oils for other uses..· India’s more muted demand could complicate any moves to seek to ship surplus light-grade supplies from US to the country unless prices adjust to make the arbitrage workable again..· Pakistan’s base oils demand could rise after supplies fall in August while lube demand rises..· Lower supply and higher demand cut stocks, boosting need to replenish inventories.· Demand could get further support if lube consumption extends its recovery.· Shipments from South Korea and Singapore to Pakistan rebound in September; supplies would help to meet recent pick-up in demand. .Global base oils - week of Oct 30: Price outlook - arbitrage