· Global crude oil prices mostly hold in $70-$76/barrel range since early-Sept 2024, at lower end of longer-term range over past two years.· Crude prices stay in lower range as focus turns more to fundamentals and expectations of supply outpacing demand.· Stronger US currency adds to pressure on crude oil prices.· Diesel premium to crude oil stays in narrow, lower range, compared with 2022-2023.· Weakness of diesel prices magnifies relative strength of base oils prices, adding to attraction of producing more of the lubricant feedstock.· That incentive raises prospect of rise in surplus supplies at a time when global base oils demand faces seasonal slowdown over coming weeks.· Extent of any rise in surplus supplies likely to further influence state of demand.· Any signs of smaller-than-expected supply rise and of prices better reflecting supply-demand fundamentals would likely support steadier demand, and vice versa.· Asia’s base oils demand could be more muted over the coming weeks.· India’s base oils demand likely to get support from need to replenish stocks.· Expectations that supply tightness is set to ease over coming weeks conversely incentivize buyers to delay such moves.· Easing supply-tightness raises prospect of growing price competition, adding to buyers’ incentive to hold back.· China’s base oils demand for overseas supplies could stay more muted as buyers cover more requirements with supplies from domestic market.· Europe’s base oils demand likely to stay low, with seasonal slowdown in lube demand compounding sustained slide in region’s consumption.· Healthy availability of supplies adds to demand weakness, gives buyers leverage to maintain low stocks and procure any additional volumes as and when required.· US base oils demand faces seasonal slowdown, with healthy availability and falling prices adding to incentive to minimize procurement plans.· Domestic and overseas demand could get support if expected build-up of surplus supplies is smaller than expected.· Larger-than-expected build-up of supplies would by contrast add to buyers’ incentive to hold back for longer.· Prospect of recovery in Latin America’s lube demand from start of Q1 2025 could prompt moves to lock in sufficient base oils supplies to cover the rise in demand.· Timing and strength of recovery in Latin America’s base oils demand partly depends on size of supply-build in the region at end of this year..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 11 Nov.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 11 Nov.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 11 Nov
· Global crude oil prices mostly hold in $70-$76/barrel range since early-Sept 2024, at lower end of longer-term range over past two years.· Crude prices stay in lower range as focus turns more to fundamentals and expectations of supply outpacing demand.· Stronger US currency adds to pressure on crude oil prices.· Diesel premium to crude oil stays in narrow, lower range, compared with 2022-2023.· Weakness of diesel prices magnifies relative strength of base oils prices, adding to attraction of producing more of the lubricant feedstock.· That incentive raises prospect of rise in surplus supplies at a time when global base oils demand faces seasonal slowdown over coming weeks.· Extent of any rise in surplus supplies likely to further influence state of demand.· Any signs of smaller-than-expected supply rise and of prices better reflecting supply-demand fundamentals would likely support steadier demand, and vice versa.· Asia’s base oils demand could be more muted over the coming weeks.· India’s base oils demand likely to get support from need to replenish stocks.· Expectations that supply tightness is set to ease over coming weeks conversely incentivize buyers to delay such moves.· Easing supply-tightness raises prospect of growing price competition, adding to buyers’ incentive to hold back.· China’s base oils demand for overseas supplies could stay more muted as buyers cover more requirements with supplies from domestic market.· Europe’s base oils demand likely to stay low, with seasonal slowdown in lube demand compounding sustained slide in region’s consumption.· Healthy availability of supplies adds to demand weakness, gives buyers leverage to maintain low stocks and procure any additional volumes as and when required.· US base oils demand faces seasonal slowdown, with healthy availability and falling prices adding to incentive to minimize procurement plans.· Domestic and overseas demand could get support if expected build-up of surplus supplies is smaller than expected.· Larger-than-expected build-up of supplies would by contrast add to buyers’ incentive to hold back for longer.· Prospect of recovery in Latin America’s lube demand from start of Q1 2025 could prompt moves to lock in sufficient base oils supplies to cover the rise in demand.· Timing and strength of recovery in Latin America’s base oils demand partly depends on size of supply-build in the region at end of this year..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 11 Nov.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 11 Nov.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 11 Nov
