· Crude oil prices hold in narrow, higher range since rebounding in H1 June 2024, with pick-up in summer fuel consumption keeping crude supply tighter for now.· Diesel premium to crude edges lower, stays in narrow range at much lower levels than before mid-April 2024.· Lower diesel values versus crude curb attraction of producing more motor fuels, boost attraction of producing more base oils at current price levels.· Global base oils demand faces seasonal slowdown over coming weeks, followed by typical pick-up in consumption during final weeks of third quarter of the year.· Demand patterns likely to hold steady as firm crude prices and signs of relatively balanced supply-demand dynamics curb prospect of significant price volatility that would alter buying plans.· Asia’s base oils demand could start to revive in the coming weeks as buyers begin to eye supplies for loading in August and delivery in September.· Signs of smaller-than-usual supply surplus carried into Q3 2024 and firm crude prices could curb pressure on prices.· Prospect of more limited exposure to lower prices could incentivize buyers to maintain rather than hold off procurement plans. · Demand for Asia supplies could get a boost from other markets where supply is tighter.· Sufficient supply and mixed recovery in lube demand could maintain incentive for Europe blenders to maintain low stocks.· The moves would coincide with prospect of seasonal dip in demand in coming weeks.· Firm Group I prices and more limited surplus supply of Group I base oils relative to premium-grade base oils likely to continue to incentivize buyers to boost consumption of Group II/III base oils.· US demand likely to get support until refiners/blenders are comfortable with inventory levels as buffer against any supply disruptions.· Demand likely reflects more the impact of stock-building rather than strong pick-up in end-user consumption.· Latin America’s demand could hold firm amid signs of tighter supply-demand balance and healthy finished lube consumption.· Region’s buyers could eye supplies from other markets in view of concern about supply disruptions in US, as well as higher prices for US supplies..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 15 July.Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 15 July.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 15 July
· Crude oil prices hold in narrow, higher range since rebounding in H1 June 2024, with pick-up in summer fuel consumption keeping crude supply tighter for now.· Diesel premium to crude edges lower, stays in narrow range at much lower levels than before mid-April 2024.· Lower diesel values versus crude curb attraction of producing more motor fuels, boost attraction of producing more base oils at current price levels.· Global base oils demand faces seasonal slowdown over coming weeks, followed by typical pick-up in consumption during final weeks of third quarter of the year.· Demand patterns likely to hold steady as firm crude prices and signs of relatively balanced supply-demand dynamics curb prospect of significant price volatility that would alter buying plans.· Asia’s base oils demand could start to revive in the coming weeks as buyers begin to eye supplies for loading in August and delivery in September.· Signs of smaller-than-usual supply surplus carried into Q3 2024 and firm crude prices could curb pressure on prices.· Prospect of more limited exposure to lower prices could incentivize buyers to maintain rather than hold off procurement plans. · Demand for Asia supplies could get a boost from other markets where supply is tighter.· Sufficient supply and mixed recovery in lube demand could maintain incentive for Europe blenders to maintain low stocks.· The moves would coincide with prospect of seasonal dip in demand in coming weeks.· Firm Group I prices and more limited surplus supply of Group I base oils relative to premium-grade base oils likely to continue to incentivize buyers to boost consumption of Group II/III base oils.· US demand likely to get support until refiners/blenders are comfortable with inventory levels as buffer against any supply disruptions.· Demand likely reflects more the impact of stock-building rather than strong pick-up in end-user consumption.· Latin America’s demand could hold firm amid signs of tighter supply-demand balance and healthy finished lube consumption.· Region’s buyers could eye supplies from other markets in view of concern about supply disruptions in US, as well as higher prices for US supplies..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 15 July.Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 15 July.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 15 July