· Global crude oil prices face more sustained downward pressure amid expectations of even weaker supply-demand fundamentals in 2025.· Strong US currency versus other currencies adds to pressure on crude oil prices.· Diesel premium to crude oil stays low vs recent years, holds at higher end of narrow range since start of Q2 2024.· Weak diesel premium to crude contrasts with relatively firm base oils premium to feedstock prices.· Dynamic sustains incentive for refiners to maintain higher base oils output even at a time when demand faces seasonal slowdown.· Concern about build-up of surplus supplies could add to buyers’ preference to hold back.· Asia’s base oils demand could face more downward pressure amid signs of a more rapid rise in supply, while consumption faces seasonal slowdown.· Firm base oils margins and weaker fundamentals add to buyers’ incentive to hold back.· India’s base oils demand could stay more muted as expectations of improving availability incentivize buyers to just cover immediate requirements for now.· China’s demand for overseas supplies could get support amid expected fall in domestic base oils output in coming weeks.· Europe’s base oils demand likely to stay low ahead of seasonal fall in lube consumption at year-end.· Slowdown in demand could be smaller than usual, reflecting blenders’ already-lower base oils inventories.· Weak supply-demand fundamentals put growing pressure on Europe Group III prices.· US base oils demand faces seasonal slowdown and buyers’ preference to hold back until prices show signs of bottoming out.· Any additional pressure on demand partly depends on buyers’ expectations of base oils prices and size of build-up of surplus supplies.· Overseas demand for US supplies could get support from more feasible arbitrage opportunities.· Latin America’s base oils demand could be firmer than expected as signs of tighter supply at start of Q4 2024 cushion impact of seasonal slowdown in lube consumption.· Latin America’s demand for overseas supplies is likely to focus on shipments from US amid closed arbitrage from other regions..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 18 Nov.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 18 Nov.Global base oils cargo flows: Week of 18 Nov.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 18 Nov
· Global crude oil prices face more sustained downward pressure amid expectations of even weaker supply-demand fundamentals in 2025.· Strong US currency versus other currencies adds to pressure on crude oil prices.· Diesel premium to crude oil stays low vs recent years, holds at higher end of narrow range since start of Q2 2024.· Weak diesel premium to crude contrasts with relatively firm base oils premium to feedstock prices.· Dynamic sustains incentive for refiners to maintain higher base oils output even at a time when demand faces seasonal slowdown.· Concern about build-up of surplus supplies could add to buyers’ preference to hold back.· Asia’s base oils demand could face more downward pressure amid signs of a more rapid rise in supply, while consumption faces seasonal slowdown.· Firm base oils margins and weaker fundamentals add to buyers’ incentive to hold back.· India’s base oils demand could stay more muted as expectations of improving availability incentivize buyers to just cover immediate requirements for now.· China’s demand for overseas supplies could get support amid expected fall in domestic base oils output in coming weeks.· Europe’s base oils demand likely to stay low ahead of seasonal fall in lube consumption at year-end.· Slowdown in demand could be smaller than usual, reflecting blenders’ already-lower base oils inventories.· Weak supply-demand fundamentals put growing pressure on Europe Group III prices.· US base oils demand faces seasonal slowdown and buyers’ preference to hold back until prices show signs of bottoming out.· Any additional pressure on demand partly depends on buyers’ expectations of base oils prices and size of build-up of surplus supplies.· Overseas demand for US supplies could get support from more feasible arbitrage opportunities.· Latin America’s base oils demand could be firmer than expected as signs of tighter supply at start of Q4 2024 cushion impact of seasonal slowdown in lube consumption.· Latin America’s demand for overseas supplies is likely to focus on shipments from US amid closed arbitrage from other regions..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 18 Nov.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 18 Nov.Global base oils cargo flows: Week of 18 Nov.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 18 Nov
