· Crude oil prices hold close to lowest levels in more than a month even amid signs of tightening supply, firm demand and forecasts of higher prices during Q3 2024.· Lower crude oil prices could point to moves to start to reflect fundamentals in Q4 2024, when supply tightness is expected to ease.· Diesel premium to crude oil slips to lowest in more than a month.· Lower crude prices and weaker diesel crack coincide with seasonal dip in lube demand in most markets during the summer months.· Dynamic could add to buyers’ preference to hold back for now. · Asia’s base oils demand could stay more muted for longer even as buyers prepare for seasonal rise in demand at end of Q3 2024.· Signs of recovery in regional supply, combined with lower crude prices, boost incentive for buyers to manage carefully the pace of their stock-replenishment plans.· Europe’s base oils demand likely to face seasonal slowdown over coming weeks.· Seasonal slowdown and signs of mixed-to-weaker lube demand sustain incentive for blenders to maintain low stocks.· Overseas demand for European supplies could improve if seasonal slowdown in the region frees up supplies for export.· Closed arbitrage to key outlets could cap that overseas demand.· US base oils demand likely to hold firm amid ongoing round of stock-building as cover against any weather-related supply disruptions.· Latin America’s demand for US supplies likely to hold firm amid tight supply-demand dynamics in the region.· Latin American demand for supplies from Asia could increase as arbitrage opportunities improve and buyers seek to diversify their supply sources.· Demand from other overseas markets for US supplies could ease as high prices keep arbitrage shut..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 22 July.Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 22 July.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 22 July.Global base oils cargo flows: Week of 22 July
· Crude oil prices hold close to lowest levels in more than a month even amid signs of tightening supply, firm demand and forecasts of higher prices during Q3 2024.· Lower crude oil prices could point to moves to start to reflect fundamentals in Q4 2024, when supply tightness is expected to ease.· Diesel premium to crude oil slips to lowest in more than a month.· Lower crude prices and weaker diesel crack coincide with seasonal dip in lube demand in most markets during the summer months.· Dynamic could add to buyers’ preference to hold back for now. · Asia’s base oils demand could stay more muted for longer even as buyers prepare for seasonal rise in demand at end of Q3 2024.· Signs of recovery in regional supply, combined with lower crude prices, boost incentive for buyers to manage carefully the pace of their stock-replenishment plans.· Europe’s base oils demand likely to face seasonal slowdown over coming weeks.· Seasonal slowdown and signs of mixed-to-weaker lube demand sustain incentive for blenders to maintain low stocks.· Overseas demand for European supplies could improve if seasonal slowdown in the region frees up supplies for export.· Closed arbitrage to key outlets could cap that overseas demand.· US base oils demand likely to hold firm amid ongoing round of stock-building as cover against any weather-related supply disruptions.· Latin America’s demand for US supplies likely to hold firm amid tight supply-demand dynamics in the region.· Latin American demand for supplies from Asia could increase as arbitrage opportunities improve and buyers seek to diversify their supply sources.· Demand from other overseas markets for US supplies could ease as high prices keep arbitrage shut..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 22 July.Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 22 July.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 22 July.Global base oils cargo flows: Week of 22 July