· Global crude oil prices hold in narrow range since mid-Oct 2024 as geopolitical concerns counter signs of fundamentals weakness and strong US dollar.· Diesel premium to crude oil edges up to higher end of narrow, lower range since Apr 2024.· Base oils prices mostly hold firm relative to weak diesel values, curbing incentivize for refiners to adjust output in response to seasonal slowdown in demand.· Demand faces additional downward pressure from expectations of build-up of surplus supplies and expectations that prices will adjust to reflect those weaker fundamentals.· Any signs of smaller-than-expected supply-build could limit slowdown in demand.· Asia’s base oils demand could ease as supply improves after relative tightness in recent months.· Expectations that supply will rise and prices will adjust in response to weaker fundamentals add to buyers’ preference to hold back.· China’s demand for overseas supplies likely to stay muted even as plant shutdowns cut domestic output.· India's demand for Group II heavy-grade base oils could face pressure from expectations of improving supply and ready availability of alternative grades.· Europe’s regional base oils demand faces ongoing seasonal slowdown, compounding sustained fall in regional lube consumption.· Overseas demand for Europe’s Group I supplies could stay more muted, with prices at levels that keep arbitrage hard to work.· US base oils demand set to stay weak amid seasonal slowdown in lube consumption and as blenders trim stocks.· Export demand for US supplies could improve as lower prices boost feasibility of arbitrage shipments to overseas markets. · Latin America's demand for US supplies could improve earlier than usual amid signs of more balanced fundamentals at start of Q4 2024 and closed arbitrage from other regions..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 25 Nov.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 25 Nov.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 25 Nov
· Global crude oil prices hold in narrow range since mid-Oct 2024 as geopolitical concerns counter signs of fundamentals weakness and strong US dollar.· Diesel premium to crude oil edges up to higher end of narrow, lower range since Apr 2024.· Base oils prices mostly hold firm relative to weak diesel values, curbing incentivize for refiners to adjust output in response to seasonal slowdown in demand.· Demand faces additional downward pressure from expectations of build-up of surplus supplies and expectations that prices will adjust to reflect those weaker fundamentals.· Any signs of smaller-than-expected supply-build could limit slowdown in demand.· Asia’s base oils demand could ease as supply improves after relative tightness in recent months.· Expectations that supply will rise and prices will adjust in response to weaker fundamentals add to buyers’ preference to hold back.· China’s demand for overseas supplies likely to stay muted even as plant shutdowns cut domestic output.· India's demand for Group II heavy-grade base oils could face pressure from expectations of improving supply and ready availability of alternative grades.· Europe’s regional base oils demand faces ongoing seasonal slowdown, compounding sustained fall in regional lube consumption.· Overseas demand for Europe’s Group I supplies could stay more muted, with prices at levels that keep arbitrage hard to work.· US base oils demand set to stay weak amid seasonal slowdown in lube consumption and as blenders trim stocks.· Export demand for US supplies could improve as lower prices boost feasibility of arbitrage shipments to overseas markets. · Latin America's demand for US supplies could improve earlier than usual amid signs of more balanced fundamentals at start of Q4 2024 and closed arbitrage from other regions..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 25 Nov.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 25 Nov.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 25 Nov
