· Global crude oil prices get support from OPEC+ move to delay planned rise in production.· OPEC+ move highlights concern about weak market fundamentals and prospect of rising surplus supply in 2025.· Diesel premium to crude oil holds at low level in narrow range since end-April 2024, staying far below levels in 2022-2023.· Weak crude oil fundamentals and low diesel crack add to downward pressure on base oils prices unless supply-demand fundamentals are unusually strong.· Base oils supply-demand fundamentals likely to weaken over coming months.· Seasonal slowdown in global base oils demand at year-end and expectations of growing surplus supply likely to incentivize buyers to hold back.· Expectations of lower prices add to buyers’ incentive to hold back.· Asia’s base oils demand could stay firmer than in other regions after tighter supply in recent months leaves blenders with lower stocks in markets like southeast Asia.· China’s base oils demand shows signs of holding firm for domestic supplies, staying weak for overseas supplies.· Europe’s base oils demand faces pressure from signs of healthy availability of all grades combined with sustained slide in finished lube consumption.· Weak fundamentals incentivize blenders to maintain low stocks.· Blenders’ low stocks likely to prompt more frequent moves to top up those stocks.· US base oils demand likely to extend slowdown as buyers trim stocks before year-end.· Demand could face less downward pressure if buyers deem any build-up of surplus supplies to be smaller than expected.· Demand could face more downward pressure if build-up of surplus supply is larger than expected.· Latin America’s base oils demand for overseas supplies likely to ebb amid weaker lube consumption, sufficient supply and expectations of lower prices.· Latin America’s base oils demand for US supplies could get support from more competitive prices compared with other regions..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 4 Nov.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 4 Nov.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 Nov
· Global crude oil prices get support from OPEC+ move to delay planned rise in production.· OPEC+ move highlights concern about weak market fundamentals and prospect of rising surplus supply in 2025.· Diesel premium to crude oil holds at low level in narrow range since end-April 2024, staying far below levels in 2022-2023.· Weak crude oil fundamentals and low diesel crack add to downward pressure on base oils prices unless supply-demand fundamentals are unusually strong.· Base oils supply-demand fundamentals likely to weaken over coming months.· Seasonal slowdown in global base oils demand at year-end and expectations of growing surplus supply likely to incentivize buyers to hold back.· Expectations of lower prices add to buyers’ incentive to hold back.· Asia’s base oils demand could stay firmer than in other regions after tighter supply in recent months leaves blenders with lower stocks in markets like southeast Asia.· China’s base oils demand shows signs of holding firm for domestic supplies, staying weak for overseas supplies.· Europe’s base oils demand faces pressure from signs of healthy availability of all grades combined with sustained slide in finished lube consumption.· Weak fundamentals incentivize blenders to maintain low stocks.· Blenders’ low stocks likely to prompt more frequent moves to top up those stocks.· US base oils demand likely to extend slowdown as buyers trim stocks before year-end.· Demand could face less downward pressure if buyers deem any build-up of surplus supplies to be smaller than expected.· Demand could face more downward pressure if build-up of surplus supply is larger than expected.· Latin America’s base oils demand for overseas supplies likely to ebb amid weaker lube consumption, sufficient supply and expectations of lower prices.· Latin America’s base oils demand for US supplies could get support from more competitive prices compared with other regions..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 4 Nov.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 4 Nov.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 Nov
