· Crude oil prices resume rise, climbing to highest this year as expectations of tighter supply coincide with confidence of firmer demand.· Growing expectations that US interest rates have peaked ease concern about possibility of US recession.· US interest rates likely to stay at elevated levels well into 2024, keeping pressure on US economic growth.· China’s manufacturing sector shows signs of steadying after sustained contraction in recent months.· China’s slower economic growth likely to add to drag on global growth prospects, especially in Asia-Pacific region.· Diesel premium to crude stays elevated but falls sharply from recent highs.· Lube blenders face challenge of securing sufficient base oils supplies to meet seasonal rise in lubricants consumption that is likely to be weaker than usual.· Base oils demand could still be higher than year-earlier levels as blenders replenish stocks that are lower than year-earlier levels.· Base oils demand could get further boost from expectations that prices will hold firm or rise.· Base oils demand could get additional support from signs of balanced-to-tighter supply, curbing availability of arbitrage shipments.· Supply could tighten further amid growing round of plant maintenance in Asia, slowdown in arbitrage shipments from US, closed arbitrage from Europe.· Balanced-to-tighter supply dynamics would contrast with same time last year and give refiners more leverage to target steady-to-higher prices.· Balanced-to-tighter supply dynamics would boost buyers’ demand for full allocation of term supplies.· Any such trend would cut further refiners’ availability of surplus supplies.· Possibility of weather-related supply disruptions rises in US as Atlantic hurricane season enters peak period..Global base oils - week of Sep 4: Price outlook - margins
· Crude oil prices resume rise, climbing to highest this year as expectations of tighter supply coincide with confidence of firmer demand.· Growing expectations that US interest rates have peaked ease concern about possibility of US recession.· US interest rates likely to stay at elevated levels well into 2024, keeping pressure on US economic growth.· China’s manufacturing sector shows signs of steadying after sustained contraction in recent months.· China’s slower economic growth likely to add to drag on global growth prospects, especially in Asia-Pacific region.· Diesel premium to crude stays elevated but falls sharply from recent highs.· Lube blenders face challenge of securing sufficient base oils supplies to meet seasonal rise in lubricants consumption that is likely to be weaker than usual.· Base oils demand could still be higher than year-earlier levels as blenders replenish stocks that are lower than year-earlier levels.· Base oils demand could get further boost from expectations that prices will hold firm or rise.· Base oils demand could get additional support from signs of balanced-to-tighter supply, curbing availability of arbitrage shipments.· Supply could tighten further amid growing round of plant maintenance in Asia, slowdown in arbitrage shipments from US, closed arbitrage from Europe.· Balanced-to-tighter supply dynamics would contrast with same time last year and give refiners more leverage to target steady-to-higher prices.· Balanced-to-tighter supply dynamics would boost buyers’ demand for full allocation of term supplies.· Any such trend would cut further refiners’ availability of surplus supplies.· Possibility of weather-related supply disruptions rises in US as Atlantic hurricane season enters peak period..Global base oils - week of Sep 4: Price outlook - margins