· Growing number of base oils cargoes move to Nigeria from both US and Europe in recent weeks.· Shipments add to signs of weaker demand and rising surplus supplies in both US and Europe.· Shipments move from US to Nigeria in each of the three months to Sept 2024. · Shipment from Mediterranean market reaches Nigeria at end-Sept 2024.· Recent rise in shipments contrasts with fall in global base oils exports to Nigeria in preceding months..· Shipments to Nigeria fall in Q2 2024 to lowest in more than four years as tighter supply, firmer demand and higher prices in US and Europe incentivize more shipments to stay in or move to those markets.· Ongoing financing and currency issues in Nigeria also add to suppliers’ preference to move any surplus shipments to other markets instead. .· Europe’s tight fundamentals show signs of changing in early-Q3 2024, with surge in Group I base oils exports to non-EU markets in July 2024.· Exports rise at start of Q3 2024 despite lower regional Group I supply..· Lower supply and rising exports points to weaker regional demand..· Shipment from Mediterranean market to Nigeria in Sept 2024 suggests weaker supply-demand fundamentals extend through Q3 2024.· Europe’s domestic Group I base oils prices fall in H2 Sept 2024, reflecting the region's weaker supply-demand fundamentals.· Europe’s weaker fundamentals and lower prices cut attraction of moving more US Group I shipments to the region..· US market also faces weaker supply fundamentals in late-Q3 2024 as sellers move to trim inventories before slowdown in demand in Q4 2024.· Shipments move from US Gulf coast to Nigeria in July 2024 and Aug 2024, with signs of additional surplus spot shipments in Sept 2024.· Shipment of surplus US supplies to outlets like Nigeria eases pressure on US’ weaker supply-demand fundamentals. · Shipment of surplus US supplies to outlets like Nigeria rather than to Europe avoids exacerbating Europe’s weaker supply-demand fundamentals.· Recent recovery in shipments to Nigeria follows slump in shipments in Q2 2024.· Trend suggests flow of shipments to Nigeria serves as useful bellwether of state of supply-demand fundamentals in Europe and US especially.· Trend suggests flow of shipments to Nigeria rather than to other outlets also serves as useful bellwether of state of demand fundamentals in those other outlets..Global exports to Africa fall in July.Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 Oct.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 Oct.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 Oct
· Growing number of base oils cargoes move to Nigeria from both US and Europe in recent weeks.· Shipments add to signs of weaker demand and rising surplus supplies in both US and Europe.· Shipments move from US to Nigeria in each of the three months to Sept 2024. · Shipment from Mediterranean market reaches Nigeria at end-Sept 2024.· Recent rise in shipments contrasts with fall in global base oils exports to Nigeria in preceding months..· Shipments to Nigeria fall in Q2 2024 to lowest in more than four years as tighter supply, firmer demand and higher prices in US and Europe incentivize more shipments to stay in or move to those markets.· Ongoing financing and currency issues in Nigeria also add to suppliers’ preference to move any surplus shipments to other markets instead. .· Europe’s tight fundamentals show signs of changing in early-Q3 2024, with surge in Group I base oils exports to non-EU markets in July 2024.· Exports rise at start of Q3 2024 despite lower regional Group I supply..· Lower supply and rising exports points to weaker regional demand..· Shipment from Mediterranean market to Nigeria in Sept 2024 suggests weaker supply-demand fundamentals extend through Q3 2024.· Europe’s domestic Group I base oils prices fall in H2 Sept 2024, reflecting the region's weaker supply-demand fundamentals.· Europe’s weaker fundamentals and lower prices cut attraction of moving more US Group I shipments to the region..· US market also faces weaker supply fundamentals in late-Q3 2024 as sellers move to trim inventories before slowdown in demand in Q4 2024.· Shipments move from US Gulf coast to Nigeria in July 2024 and Aug 2024, with signs of additional surplus spot shipments in Sept 2024.· Shipment of surplus US supplies to outlets like Nigeria eases pressure on US’ weaker supply-demand fundamentals. · Shipment of surplus US supplies to outlets like Nigeria rather than to Europe avoids exacerbating Europe’s weaker supply-demand fundamentals.· Recent recovery in shipments to Nigeria follows slump in shipments in Q2 2024.· Trend suggests flow of shipments to Nigeria serves as useful bellwether of state of supply-demand fundamentals in Europe and US especially.· Trend suggests flow of shipments to Nigeria rather than to other outlets also serves as useful bellwether of state of demand fundamentals in those other outlets..Global exports to Africa fall in July.Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 Oct.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 Oct.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 Oct
