· Asia’s Group I bright stock prices get sustained support from firm supply-demand fundamentals, ICIS data shows.· Asia’s structural Group I bright stock supply tightens amid fall in base oils exports from Japan, slump in shipments to Singapore..· Pause in Singapore’s base oils imports from Japan extend through early March 2024..· Plant maintenance work in Thailand in Jan-Feb 2024 cuts Group I supply and exports from that market in Jan 2024 to lowest in more than a year..· Tight regional supply supports unusually high Asia bright stock price premium to fob Europe prices at least through first two months of 2024..· Higher bright stock price premium boosts attraction of moving arbitrage shipments from Europe and Mideast Gulf to Asia..· Voyage time of Group I base oils shipments from Europe to Asia takes longer because of shipment via southern Africa rather than Red Sea.· Most recent cargo from Italy reached Singapore at end-December 2023 after loading a month earlier.· Next cargo from Italy scheduled to reach Singapore in coming days after loading in 1H January.· Availability of surplus bright stock supplies in Europe likely to fall in coming weeks as demand gets seasonal lift and as imminent plant closure cuts supply.· Base oils shipments from Saudi Arabia show signs of falling in Feb 2024 from previous months, with more shipments moving via Suez Canal rather than via Red Sea.· Logistical complications boost attraction of keeping more Asia bright stock supplies within the region.· Asia’s firm bright stock prices slash their discount to fob US prices to narrowest level in almost three years..· Narrower discount likely to curb steady flow of arbitrage shipments from southeast Asia to Latin America over past year..· Limited supply coincides with firm demand in Asia-Pacific market, including China.· China’s domestic Group I bright stock premium to fob Asia prices rises in Q1 2024 to highest since Q1 2022, boosting attraction of moving arbitrage cargoes to that market..· China’s domestic prices for other base oils grades stay weaker relative to Asia prices, highlighting focus of tightness on bright stock supplies.· Asia’s Group I bright stock prices often fall relative to other grades and other regions during the second quarter of the year as supply-demand fundamentals ease.· That trend could be different this year with supply likely to remain tighter than usual..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of March 11
· Asia’s Group I bright stock prices get sustained support from firm supply-demand fundamentals, ICIS data shows.· Asia’s structural Group I bright stock supply tightens amid fall in base oils exports from Japan, slump in shipments to Singapore..· Pause in Singapore’s base oils imports from Japan extend through early March 2024..· Plant maintenance work in Thailand in Jan-Feb 2024 cuts Group I supply and exports from that market in Jan 2024 to lowest in more than a year..· Tight regional supply supports unusually high Asia bright stock price premium to fob Europe prices at least through first two months of 2024..· Higher bright stock price premium boosts attraction of moving arbitrage shipments from Europe and Mideast Gulf to Asia..· Voyage time of Group I base oils shipments from Europe to Asia takes longer because of shipment via southern Africa rather than Red Sea.· Most recent cargo from Italy reached Singapore at end-December 2023 after loading a month earlier.· Next cargo from Italy scheduled to reach Singapore in coming days after loading in 1H January.· Availability of surplus bright stock supplies in Europe likely to fall in coming weeks as demand gets seasonal lift and as imminent plant closure cuts supply.· Base oils shipments from Saudi Arabia show signs of falling in Feb 2024 from previous months, with more shipments moving via Suez Canal rather than via Red Sea.· Logistical complications boost attraction of keeping more Asia bright stock supplies within the region.· Asia’s firm bright stock prices slash their discount to fob US prices to narrowest level in almost three years..· Narrower discount likely to curb steady flow of arbitrage shipments from southeast Asia to Latin America over past year..· Limited supply coincides with firm demand in Asia-Pacific market, including China.· China’s domestic Group I bright stock premium to fob Asia prices rises in Q1 2024 to highest since Q1 2022, boosting attraction of moving arbitrage cargoes to that market..· China’s domestic prices for other base oils grades stay weaker relative to Asia prices, highlighting focus of tightness on bright stock supplies.· Asia’s Group I bright stock prices often fall relative to other grades and other regions during the second quarter of the year as supply-demand fundamentals ease.· That trend could be different this year with supply likely to remain tighter than usual..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of March 11