· US base oils export prices hold firm vs domestic prices and versus prices in other regions.· Firm export prices keep arbitrage shut to outlets like Africa and India.· Europe’s base oils export prices hold firm versus prices in other regions, keeping arbitrage shut.· Firm prices and closed arbitrage point to more limited volume of spot cargoes to clear.· Surplus supply often starts to build in US, Europe and Asia in response to seasonal dip in demand during summer months.· Prices in those markets typically fall relative to prices in destination markets to open the arbitrage and remove the surplus.· More limited surplus supply could ease pressure on prices in those source markets to adjust in order to open the arbitrage.· More limited arbitrage shipments could instead put pressure on buyers in those outlets to adjust strategies to secure supplies.· US export price discount to domestic prices stays narrower since end-Q1 2024..· US export Group II price premium to CFR India prices continues to widen, contrasts with steep discount to CFR India prices in five months to late-May 2024..· Firm US export prices keep shut the arbitrage to outlets like India..· Firm export prices vs domestic prices and closed arbitrage to overseas markets point to tighter surplus supply.· US base oils/lube exports fall in April-May 2024 vs Q1 2024, reflecting that dynamic..· US base oils/lube exports fall in May 2024 to lowest in seven months as plant maintenance and firmer domestic demand tighten supply.· Domestic buyers’ moves to pad stocks to cover against weather-related supply disruptions likely to support demand well into start of Q3 2024..· Europe’s Group I export prices stay unusually firm vs domestic prices heading into Q3 2024.· Europe Group I export prices maintain premium to prices in outlets like Middle East and India..· Europe’s Group I base oil exports to markets outside EU already trend lower in first four months of 2024 as refiners focus on regional demand..· A drop in arbitrage shipments from US and Europe in Q3 2024 would curb supply options in markets like Africa and India ahead of seasonal pick-up in demand at end of the quarter.· Dynamic would limit pressure on FOB prices to adjust in source markets like US and Europe.· Dynamic would instead put pressure on CFR prices to adjust in destination markets in order to open the arbitrage..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 15 July.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 15 July.Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 15 July
· US base oils export prices hold firm vs domestic prices and versus prices in other regions.· Firm export prices keep arbitrage shut to outlets like Africa and India.· Europe’s base oils export prices hold firm versus prices in other regions, keeping arbitrage shut.· Firm prices and closed arbitrage point to more limited volume of spot cargoes to clear.· Surplus supply often starts to build in US, Europe and Asia in response to seasonal dip in demand during summer months.· Prices in those markets typically fall relative to prices in destination markets to open the arbitrage and remove the surplus.· More limited surplus supply could ease pressure on prices in those source markets to adjust in order to open the arbitrage.· More limited arbitrage shipments could instead put pressure on buyers in those outlets to adjust strategies to secure supplies.· US export price discount to domestic prices stays narrower since end-Q1 2024..· US export Group II price premium to CFR India prices continues to widen, contrasts with steep discount to CFR India prices in five months to late-May 2024..· Firm US export prices keep shut the arbitrage to outlets like India..· Firm export prices vs domestic prices and closed arbitrage to overseas markets point to tighter surplus supply.· US base oils/lube exports fall in April-May 2024 vs Q1 2024, reflecting that dynamic..· US base oils/lube exports fall in May 2024 to lowest in seven months as plant maintenance and firmer domestic demand tighten supply.· Domestic buyers’ moves to pad stocks to cover against weather-related supply disruptions likely to support demand well into start of Q3 2024..· Europe’s Group I export prices stay unusually firm vs domestic prices heading into Q3 2024.· Europe Group I export prices maintain premium to prices in outlets like Middle East and India..· Europe’s Group I base oil exports to markets outside EU already trend lower in first four months of 2024 as refiners focus on regional demand..· A drop in arbitrage shipments from US and Europe in Q3 2024 would curb supply options in markets like Africa and India ahead of seasonal pick-up in demand at end of the quarter.· Dynamic would limit pressure on FOB prices to adjust in source markets like US and Europe.· Dynamic would instead put pressure on CFR prices to adjust in destination markets in order to open the arbitrage..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 15 July.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 15 July.Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 15 July