· Europe’s Group III base oils prices fall in recent weeks amid weaker supply-demand fundamentals..· Europe’s Group III price premium to prices in Asia falls to narrowest in almost four months; premium stays wide vs US prices..· Europe’s wide Group III base oils premium vs US and Asia in Q3 2024 boosts attraction for overseas suppliers to move more shipments to Europe.· Europe’s Group III base oils supply duly rises to multi-year high in Aug 2024..· Europe’s Group III base oils supply outpaces Group I supply in Aug 2024 for first time in fourteen months..· Europe’s Group III price premium to Group I base oils widens in Aug-Sept 2024 even as supply rises and lube demand falls.· Italy’s lube demand extends fall in Sept 2024, raising prospect of similar trend in Europe and extension of slowdown in Q4 2024..· Slower demand and healthy Group III supply cushion impact of Group III plant maintenance work from end-Q3 2024.· Demand likely to remain slow even after completion of plant maintenance work..· Slower demand coincides with lower Europe Group I domestic prices that cut attraction of moving more Group I shipments to the region from markets like US..· Slower demand coincides with lower Group I export prices, as well as pick-up in Group I shipments to markets like southeast Asia and West Africa in H2 2024.· Slower demand coincides with Group I plant maintenance work in Q4 2024.· Dynamic suggests Europe has more direct control over its Group I supply and more tools to limit or clear supply-build at year-end.· Imports account for around half of Europe’s Group III base oils supply in Jan-Aug 2024..· Imports account for less than 5% of Europe’s Group I supply over most of the past year..· Group III imports’ large share of market supply leaves Europe with less direct control over large portion of its Group III base oils supply.· Dynamic increases importance of Europe’s Group III base oils price as key factor to influence regional Group III supply, especially at year-end.· Europe’s Group III price premium to US especially remains at level that sustains incentive for overseas refiners to move more shipments to the region over coming months.· Group III prices at smaller premium or at discount to prices in other markets would reduce that incentive and curb prospect of large supply-build at year-end..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 4 Nov.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 Nov.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 Nov
· Europe’s Group III base oils prices fall in recent weeks amid weaker supply-demand fundamentals..· Europe’s Group III price premium to prices in Asia falls to narrowest in almost four months; premium stays wide vs US prices..· Europe’s wide Group III base oils premium vs US and Asia in Q3 2024 boosts attraction for overseas suppliers to move more shipments to Europe.· Europe’s Group III base oils supply duly rises to multi-year high in Aug 2024..· Europe’s Group III base oils supply outpaces Group I supply in Aug 2024 for first time in fourteen months..· Europe’s Group III price premium to Group I base oils widens in Aug-Sept 2024 even as supply rises and lube demand falls.· Italy’s lube demand extends fall in Sept 2024, raising prospect of similar trend in Europe and extension of slowdown in Q4 2024..· Slower demand and healthy Group III supply cushion impact of Group III plant maintenance work from end-Q3 2024.· Demand likely to remain slow even after completion of plant maintenance work..· Slower demand coincides with lower Europe Group I domestic prices that cut attraction of moving more Group I shipments to the region from markets like US..· Slower demand coincides with lower Group I export prices, as well as pick-up in Group I shipments to markets like southeast Asia and West Africa in H2 2024.· Slower demand coincides with Group I plant maintenance work in Q4 2024.· Dynamic suggests Europe has more direct control over its Group I supply and more tools to limit or clear supply-build at year-end.· Imports account for around half of Europe’s Group III base oils supply in Jan-Aug 2024..· Imports account for less than 5% of Europe’s Group I supply over most of the past year..· Group III imports’ large share of market supply leaves Europe with less direct control over large portion of its Group III base oils supply.· Dynamic increases importance of Europe’s Group III base oils price as key factor to influence regional Group III supply, especially at year-end.· Europe’s Group III price premium to US especially remains at level that sustains incentive for overseas refiners to move more shipments to the region over coming months.· Group III prices at smaller premium or at discount to prices in other markets would reduce that incentive and curb prospect of large supply-build at year-end..Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 4 Nov.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 Nov.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 Nov
