· Global base oils prices mostly hold steadier vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.· Weak export price premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices in US and Europe incentivizes refiners to cut run-rates.· Relatively firm domestic price premium in US could deter such moves; relatively weak domestic price premium in Europe could add to such moves.· Fob Asia base oils values hold firm vs regional gasoil prices.· Fob Asia base oils premium to gasoil prices stayed well above year-earlier levels in first two months of 2024, reflecting more limited surplus at start of the year.· Fob Asia base oils premium to gasoil prices starts to lag year-earlier levels in March 2024..· Firm but not surging base oils premium incentivizes refiners to continue to manage output carefully..· China’s domestic Group II light-grade premium to Shandong diesel prices extends fall that began in late-Feb 2024..· Falling base oils values contrast with rising premium through most of March-April 2023.· Falling premium cuts incentive for domestic refiners to raise output..· CFR India N70 premium to regional gasoil prices holds at levels that allow refiners to continue to offer surplus supplies on fob Asia basis at steady premium to diesel prices..· Europe’s Group I export prices rise vs gasoil/VGO prices, mostly stay well below year-earlier levels.· Weak export prices vs gasoil/VGO incentivize refiners to trim surplus supplies..· Europe’s Group I domestic prices hold steady vs VGO, close to year-earlier levels.· Europe’s Group II domestic prices edge up vs VGO, stay well below year-earlier levels.· Europe’s Group II prices stay lower vs VGO even with regional plant maintenance work.· Steady Group II premium to VGO points to relatively balanced supply-demand fundamentals even with plant maintenance work..· US Group II export prices maintain discount to heating oil.· US Group II export light-grade price premium to VGO falls to lowest since 2018; N600 premium edges up, holds close to lowest since mid-2020.· Weak margins incentivize refiners to produce more diesel instead.· US Group II domestic heavy-grade price premium to VGO holds close to lowest since June 2022, stays well above pre-2021 levels..· US Group II light-grade posted price premium to VGO edges up, stays close to lowest since Sep 2023..Global base oils demand outlook: Week of March 4
· Global base oils prices mostly hold steadier vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.· Weak export price premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices in US and Europe incentivizes refiners to cut run-rates.· Relatively firm domestic price premium in US could deter such moves; relatively weak domestic price premium in Europe could add to such moves.· Fob Asia base oils values hold firm vs regional gasoil prices.· Fob Asia base oils premium to gasoil prices stayed well above year-earlier levels in first two months of 2024, reflecting more limited surplus at start of the year.· Fob Asia base oils premium to gasoil prices starts to lag year-earlier levels in March 2024..· Firm but not surging base oils premium incentivizes refiners to continue to manage output carefully..· China’s domestic Group II light-grade premium to Shandong diesel prices extends fall that began in late-Feb 2024..· Falling base oils values contrast with rising premium through most of March-April 2023.· Falling premium cuts incentive for domestic refiners to raise output..· CFR India N70 premium to regional gasoil prices holds at levels that allow refiners to continue to offer surplus supplies on fob Asia basis at steady premium to diesel prices..· Europe’s Group I export prices rise vs gasoil/VGO prices, mostly stay well below year-earlier levels.· Weak export prices vs gasoil/VGO incentivize refiners to trim surplus supplies..· Europe’s Group I domestic prices hold steady vs VGO, close to year-earlier levels.· Europe’s Group II domestic prices edge up vs VGO, stay well below year-earlier levels.· Europe’s Group II prices stay lower vs VGO even with regional plant maintenance work.· Steady Group II premium to VGO points to relatively balanced supply-demand fundamentals even with plant maintenance work..· US Group II export prices maintain discount to heating oil.· US Group II export light-grade price premium to VGO falls to lowest since 2018; N600 premium edges up, holds close to lowest since mid-2020.· Weak margins incentivize refiners to produce more diesel instead.· US Group II domestic heavy-grade price premium to VGO holds close to lowest since June 2022, stays well above pre-2021 levels..· US Group II light-grade posted price premium to VGO edges up, stays close to lowest since Sep 2023..Global base oils demand outlook: Week of March 4
