· Base oils values mostly weaken vs feedstock/competing fuel prices in US/Europe.· Base oils values hold firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices in Asia, especially for heavy grades.· Contrasting trends point to different supply-demand dynamics in different regions.· Contrasting trends incentivize US refiners especially to consider adjusting output, Asia refiners to maintain or raise output. .· Asia’s base oils prices hold firm relative to Singapore gasoil prices, especially for heavy grades..· FOB NE Asia Group II heavy-grade premium to gasoil remains unusually firm even after slipping from recent high of close-to-three-year high in mid-Sept 2024.· Unusually firm premium points to persistently-tight supply-demand fundamentals..· Domestic China Group II N150 premium to Shandong diesel extends gradual fall since end-Sept 2024..· N150 premium stays at relatively firm level and in narrow range it has held in since start of Q2 2024.· Relative stability of N150 premium contrasts with surge in premium in Sept-Oct 2023, followed by slump in premium from mid-Nov 2023.· Domestic Group II N500 premium to Shandong diesel also trends lower since end-Sept 2024, stays much higher than year-earlier levels.· Stability of Group II light-grade premium points to relatively balanced supply-demand fundamentals.· Strength of heavy-grade premium points to firmer supply-demand fundamentals..· CFR India N70 premium to Singapore gasoil steadies at lower end of range so far this year..· Premium holds in relatively narrow range, contrasts with surge in premium in Aug-Nov 2023 followed by sharp correction over next three months.· Steadier premium this year points to more balanced supply-demand fundamentals.· Premium stays at level that makes arbitrage feasible and incentivizes refiners to direct very light grades into base oils pool..· Europe’s Group II heavy-grade premium to VGO holds in narrow range and relatively firm since early-Oct 2024.· Price-strength contrasts with sharper fall in Group II light-grade premium to VGO since early-Oct 2024..· Diverging trends point to change in supply-demand fundamentals for the two grades.· Europe’s Group III 4cSt (low) premium to VGO extends steady slide since mid-Sept 2024, slipping to lowest since Q1 2022..· Sliding premium points to increasingly weak supply-demand fundamentals..· US Group II domestic price premium to VGO extends fall to six-month low..· Falling Group II premium to VGO contrasts with higher levels the same time a year earlier, especially for heavy grades.· Lower premium at earlier stage in year could speed up any moves by refiners to adjust output.· US Group II light-grade posted price premium to VGO stays unusually high even after drop in posted prices in early-Nov 2024..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 11 Nov.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 11 Nov
· Base oils values mostly weaken vs feedstock/competing fuel prices in US/Europe.· Base oils values hold firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices in Asia, especially for heavy grades.· Contrasting trends point to different supply-demand dynamics in different regions.· Contrasting trends incentivize US refiners especially to consider adjusting output, Asia refiners to maintain or raise output. .· Asia’s base oils prices hold firm relative to Singapore gasoil prices, especially for heavy grades..· FOB NE Asia Group II heavy-grade premium to gasoil remains unusually firm even after slipping from recent high of close-to-three-year high in mid-Sept 2024.· Unusually firm premium points to persistently-tight supply-demand fundamentals..· Domestic China Group II N150 premium to Shandong diesel extends gradual fall since end-Sept 2024..· N150 premium stays at relatively firm level and in narrow range it has held in since start of Q2 2024.· Relative stability of N150 premium contrasts with surge in premium in Sept-Oct 2023, followed by slump in premium from mid-Nov 2023.· Domestic Group II N500 premium to Shandong diesel also trends lower since end-Sept 2024, stays much higher than year-earlier levels.· Stability of Group II light-grade premium points to relatively balanced supply-demand fundamentals.· Strength of heavy-grade premium points to firmer supply-demand fundamentals..· CFR India N70 premium to Singapore gasoil steadies at lower end of range so far this year..· Premium holds in relatively narrow range, contrasts with surge in premium in Aug-Nov 2023 followed by sharp correction over next three months.· Steadier premium this year points to more balanced supply-demand fundamentals.· Premium stays at level that makes arbitrage feasible and incentivizes refiners to direct very light grades into base oils pool..· Europe’s Group II heavy-grade premium to VGO holds in narrow range and relatively firm since early-Oct 2024.· Price-strength contrasts with sharper fall in Group II light-grade premium to VGO since early-Oct 2024..· Diverging trends point to change in supply-demand fundamentals for the two grades.· Europe’s Group III 4cSt (low) premium to VGO extends steady slide since mid-Sept 2024, slipping to lowest since Q1 2022..· Sliding premium points to increasingly weak supply-demand fundamentals..· US Group II domestic price premium to VGO extends fall to six-month low..· Falling Group II premium to VGO contrasts with higher levels the same time a year earlier, especially for heavy grades.· Lower premium at earlier stage in year could speed up any moves by refiners to adjust output.· US Group II light-grade posted price premium to VGO stays unusually high even after drop in posted prices in early-Nov 2024..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 11 Nov.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 11 Nov
