· Global base oils prices mostly weaken vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, with Asia values holding steadier..· Weaker values in US/Europe incentivize run-cuts, especially to reduce surplus supply for export..· Fob Asia Group II heavy-grade premium to regional gasoil prices extends recovery to two-month high, stays below year-earlier levels.· Fob Asia Group I bright stock premium to gasoil rises to highest since H1 2023, similar to year-earlier levels.· Firm Fob Asia Group I SN 500/bright stock premium to gasoil cushions discount of SN 150 to gasoil..· Domestic China Group II light-grade price premium to Shandong diesel prices holds firm at highest since July 2023..· Steady-to-firm premium contrasts with surging light-grade premium the same time a year earlier.· Lack of any similar surge in the light-grade premium so far this year could lower prospect of sharp rise in supply. .· CFR India Group II N70 price premium to regional gasoil prices stays low even as it edges up from four-month low in H1 Feb 2024..· Premium stays close to levels that incentivize refiners to redirect supplies back into diesel pool..· Europe’s domestic Group I heavy-grade premium to VGO stays at lowest since at least Q1 2023; bright stock premium holds close to lowest in more than three years..· Low heavy-grade premium to feedstock prices incentivizes refiners to minimize output.· Europe Group III 4cst (low) premium to VGO extends fall to lowest since Q1 2022, adding to incentive for refiners to trim output..· US Group II light/heavy-grade export prices stay at discount to heating oil prices.· US Group II light-grade export price premium to VGO holds at lowest since H1 2020; N600 at lowest since Q3 2020.· Weak premiums incentivize refiners to cut production.· US Group II heavy-grade domestic premium to VGO holds at lowest since Q2 2022.· Domestic price-premium remains more than $600/t higher than heavy-grade export premium to VGO..· Firm domestic premium curbs incentive for refiners to cut production.· US Group II posted-price premium to VGO falls to lowest since Q3 2023, far below year-earlier levels.· Weaker premium incentivizes refiners to raise prices if fundamentals support such a move, or to cut production if fundamentals are weak.· Signs of some posted-price increases in past week likely to test whether fundamentals support such a move. .Global base oils - week of Feb 19: Demand outlook
· Global base oils prices mostly weaken vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, with Asia values holding steadier..· Weaker values in US/Europe incentivize run-cuts, especially to reduce surplus supply for export..· Fob Asia Group II heavy-grade premium to regional gasoil prices extends recovery to two-month high, stays below year-earlier levels.· Fob Asia Group I bright stock premium to gasoil rises to highest since H1 2023, similar to year-earlier levels.· Firm Fob Asia Group I SN 500/bright stock premium to gasoil cushions discount of SN 150 to gasoil..· Domestic China Group II light-grade price premium to Shandong diesel prices holds firm at highest since July 2023..· Steady-to-firm premium contrasts with surging light-grade premium the same time a year earlier.· Lack of any similar surge in the light-grade premium so far this year could lower prospect of sharp rise in supply. .· CFR India Group II N70 price premium to regional gasoil prices stays low even as it edges up from four-month low in H1 Feb 2024..· Premium stays close to levels that incentivize refiners to redirect supplies back into diesel pool..· Europe’s domestic Group I heavy-grade premium to VGO stays at lowest since at least Q1 2023; bright stock premium holds close to lowest in more than three years..· Low heavy-grade premium to feedstock prices incentivizes refiners to minimize output.· Europe Group III 4cst (low) premium to VGO extends fall to lowest since Q1 2022, adding to incentive for refiners to trim output..· US Group II light/heavy-grade export prices stay at discount to heating oil prices.· US Group II light-grade export price premium to VGO holds at lowest since H1 2020; N600 at lowest since Q3 2020.· Weak premiums incentivize refiners to cut production.· US Group II heavy-grade domestic premium to VGO holds at lowest since Q2 2022.· Domestic price-premium remains more than $600/t higher than heavy-grade export premium to VGO..· Firm domestic premium curbs incentive for refiners to cut production.· US Group II posted-price premium to VGO falls to lowest since Q3 2023, far below year-earlier levels.· Weaker premium incentivizes refiners to raise prices if fundamentals support such a move, or to cut production if fundamentals are weak.· Signs of some posted-price increases in past week likely to test whether fundamentals support such a move. .Global base oils - week of Feb 19: Demand outlook