· Base oils price premium to VGO/competing fuel prices holds in narrower range in Europe and Asia over past month.· Steadier premiums at firm levels incentivize refiners to maintain or raise firm output levels.· US base oils prices vs VGO/competing fuel prices hold steadier after recent slide that increased incentive for refiners to adjust output to halt the slide.· FOB Asia Group I/II premium to Singapore gasoil falls in past week, stays in narrower range over past two months..· Group I/II base oils premium stays high, especially for heavier grades and especially for time of year.· Firm margins incentivize refiners to maintain higher output at time of year when demand typically faces seasonal slowdown..· China’s domestic Group II price premium to Shandong diesel prices edges lower, hold in narrow range since start of 2024..· Steadiness of Group II premium contrasts with much more volatile margins in 2022- 2023, with premiums that were much higher and lower than in 2024.· Steadiness of Group II premium points to margins at levels that incentivize sufficient supply to meet demand..· CFR India Group II N70 premium to Singapore gasoil falls, extending period of unusual volatility over past month..· N70 premium moves closer to lower end of range so far in 2024.· Signs of N70 premium falling to/holding at lower levels could point to softening supply-demand fundamentals for the grade..· Europe domestic Group I base oils premium to VGO holds relatively firm, in narrow range over past month, after correcting lower in H2 Sept 2024..· Firm Group I margins curb pressure on refiners to adjust output ahead of seasonal slowdown in demand.· Europe Group III 4cSt (low) base oil premium to VGO extends gradual fall in past month after trending higher in the two months to mid-Sept 2024.· Weaker Group III margins could point to diverging fundamentals vs Group I base oils..· Europe’s Group II premium to VGO rises faster than US Group II premium to VGO..· Europe’s widening Group II premium vs US Group II premium extends trend that began in H1 Aug 2024..· US Group II base oils export premium to VGO steadies after falling sharply since H1 Sept 2024..· Group II premium starts falling in H2 2024 more than a month earlier than a similar trend in H2 2023.· Earlier fall in base oils premium this year puts earlier pressure on refiners to respond accordingly..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 Nov.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 Nov
· Base oils price premium to VGO/competing fuel prices holds in narrower range in Europe and Asia over past month.· Steadier premiums at firm levels incentivize refiners to maintain or raise firm output levels.· US base oils prices vs VGO/competing fuel prices hold steadier after recent slide that increased incentive for refiners to adjust output to halt the slide.· FOB Asia Group I/II premium to Singapore gasoil falls in past week, stays in narrower range over past two months..· Group I/II base oils premium stays high, especially for heavier grades and especially for time of year.· Firm margins incentivize refiners to maintain higher output at time of year when demand typically faces seasonal slowdown..· China’s domestic Group II price premium to Shandong diesel prices edges lower, hold in narrow range since start of 2024..· Steadiness of Group II premium contrasts with much more volatile margins in 2022- 2023, with premiums that were much higher and lower than in 2024.· Steadiness of Group II premium points to margins at levels that incentivize sufficient supply to meet demand..· CFR India Group II N70 premium to Singapore gasoil falls, extending period of unusual volatility over past month..· N70 premium moves closer to lower end of range so far in 2024.· Signs of N70 premium falling to/holding at lower levels could point to softening supply-demand fundamentals for the grade..· Europe domestic Group I base oils premium to VGO holds relatively firm, in narrow range over past month, after correcting lower in H2 Sept 2024..· Firm Group I margins curb pressure on refiners to adjust output ahead of seasonal slowdown in demand.· Europe Group III 4cSt (low) base oil premium to VGO extends gradual fall in past month after trending higher in the two months to mid-Sept 2024.· Weaker Group III margins could point to diverging fundamentals vs Group I base oils..· Europe’s Group II premium to VGO rises faster than US Group II premium to VGO..· Europe’s widening Group II premium vs US Group II premium extends trend that began in H1 Aug 2024..· US Group II base oils export premium to VGO steadies after falling sharply since H1 Sept 2024..· Group II premium starts falling in H2 2024 more than a month earlier than a similar trend in H2 2023.· Earlier fall in base oils premium this year puts earlier pressure on refiners to respond accordingly..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 Nov.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 Nov
