· US base oils supply surplus likely to be smaller heading into Q3; Europe’s Group I base oils supply likely to be balanced.· Diesel premium to crude extends gradual rise, stays low relative to 2022 levels, while base oils premium to diesel extends gradual fall.· Changing base oils and diesel price trends start to erode incentive for refiners to maximise base oils output.· Americas’ March base oils supply falls to two-year low – extending clear-out of surplus volumes from region and leaving market more balanced by end-Q2 2023..· Slump in Americas’ base oils supply in Q1 2023 fails to reverse downward pressure on outright prices in Q2 2023.· US base oils price premium to diesel extends recovery in Q2 2023, curbing incentive for refiners to cut output.· Wave of additional arbitrage shipments from US extends into June, reflecting lingering surplus.· Lower US base oils premium to diesel in June 2023, lower supply and wave of exports throughout Q2 2023 likely to cut surplus, leaving market more balanced by end-Q2 2023.· Smaller supply surplus and more competitive prices leave US market better placed ahead of likely slowdown in regional demand in Q3 2023.· US base oils imports rise to seven-month high in April – partially countering impact of surge in exports to clear surplus.· US’ Group III base oils imports surge at start of Q2 2023 despite weaker demand fundamentals..· Rise in shipments, despite weaker demand fundamentals, suggests moves to find outlets for more plentiful availability of Group III base oils.· Weaker US demand likely to slow pace of consumption of the supplies.· Fall in US imports of Group I/II base oils in April likely cut further the country’s surplus supply.· US base oils exports to Mexico stay unusually high in April, far outpace the Latin American country’s requirements for lube consumption..· Surge in flows suggests supplies are moving into Mexico’s fuel-extender market, permanently removing the volumes from base oils market.· Shipments add to rebalancing of US base oils market during Q2 2023.· Firm European prices relative to other regions suggests relatively tighter supply.· Extended plant maintenance and loss of Russian supplies set to limit any Group I supply surplus.· Tighter Group I supply boosts attraction for European blenders to consume more premium-grade base oils.· Europe’s premium-grade base oils supplies from Mideast Gulf stay rangebound at start of Q2 2023..· Europe’s premium-grade supplies from Europe/Mideast Gulf/Asia likely to hold firm through Q3 2023 amid weaker US prices, completion of plant maintenance work.· Premium-grade supplies to key global markets from Qatar hold steady in April, with rising volumes moving to US and Europe..Americas/Europe base oils – week of June 19: Demand outlook.Contact us for more information about the data for these stories
· US base oils supply surplus likely to be smaller heading into Q3; Europe’s Group I base oils supply likely to be balanced.· Diesel premium to crude extends gradual rise, stays low relative to 2022 levels, while base oils premium to diesel extends gradual fall.· Changing base oils and diesel price trends start to erode incentive for refiners to maximise base oils output.· Americas’ March base oils supply falls to two-year low – extending clear-out of surplus volumes from region and leaving market more balanced by end-Q2 2023..· Slump in Americas’ base oils supply in Q1 2023 fails to reverse downward pressure on outright prices in Q2 2023.· US base oils price premium to diesel extends recovery in Q2 2023, curbing incentive for refiners to cut output.· Wave of additional arbitrage shipments from US extends into June, reflecting lingering surplus.· Lower US base oils premium to diesel in June 2023, lower supply and wave of exports throughout Q2 2023 likely to cut surplus, leaving market more balanced by end-Q2 2023.· Smaller supply surplus and more competitive prices leave US market better placed ahead of likely slowdown in regional demand in Q3 2023.· US base oils imports rise to seven-month high in April – partially countering impact of surge in exports to clear surplus.· US’ Group III base oils imports surge at start of Q2 2023 despite weaker demand fundamentals..· Rise in shipments, despite weaker demand fundamentals, suggests moves to find outlets for more plentiful availability of Group III base oils.· Weaker US demand likely to slow pace of consumption of the supplies.· Fall in US imports of Group I/II base oils in April likely cut further the country’s surplus supply.· US base oils exports to Mexico stay unusually high in April, far outpace the Latin American country’s requirements for lube consumption..· Surge in flows suggests supplies are moving into Mexico’s fuel-extender market, permanently removing the volumes from base oils market.· Shipments add to rebalancing of US base oils market during Q2 2023.· Firm European prices relative to other regions suggests relatively tighter supply.· Extended plant maintenance and loss of Russian supplies set to limit any Group I supply surplus.· Tighter Group I supply boosts attraction for European blenders to consume more premium-grade base oils.· Europe’s premium-grade base oils supplies from Mideast Gulf stay rangebound at start of Q2 2023..· Europe’s premium-grade supplies from Europe/Mideast Gulf/Asia likely to hold firm through Q3 2023 amid weaker US prices, completion of plant maintenance work.· Premium-grade supplies to key global markets from Qatar hold steady in April, with rising volumes moving to US and Europe..Americas/Europe base oils – week of June 19: Demand outlook.Contact us for more information about the data for these stories
