· Asia’s base oils premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices rises, holds well above year-earlier levels.· Asia’s base oils supply shows signs of rising in July 2024, at a time of year when demand is usually muted.· Rise in supply could help cover for plant maintenance work in China and India.· Rise in supply could replenish regional blenders' stocks, curbing urgency to seek additional volumes. · Singapore’s base oils exports extend strong rise in recent weeks, rebounding from slowdown in shipments in June 2024..· Taiwan's base oils exports show signs of rising sharply in July 2024 from previous month amid wave of large shipments throughout the month.· Most of the shipments move to southeast Asia and India, with only small volume bound for China..· South Korea’s base oils exports show signs of rising strongly in H1 July 2024, following slump in shipments in June 2024.· Shipments to India show signs of rising strongly, following slump in June 2024.· South Korea’s June base oils exports fall to eleven-month low despite lack of any scheduled plant maintenance work..· Exports fall even lower than levels when scheduled plant maintenance work was taking place.· Drop in exports points to refinery run-cuts or to stock-building.· Stock-building would leave additional supplies to clear at start of Q3 2024.· Run-cuts would leave the regional market with tighter-than-expected supply at the start of Q3 2024.· Exports fall in June 2024 despite firm base oils margins in April and May 2024.· Drop in exports follows simultaneous closure of arbitrage to India and China during Q2 2024.· Drop in exports could reflect stock-building as closed arbitrage cuts demand.· Drop in exports could instead reflect moves to cut run-rates in response to signs of weakening demand in April-May 2024.· Such moves would point to decisions based on changes in demand rather than decisions based on base oils margins..· South Korea’s base oils exports to Brazil rise to record-high in June 2024.· Pick-up in shipments to Brazil coincides with widening premium of US prices over Asia Group II prices, making arbitrage more feasible.· Shipments could be precursor for more sustained wave of exports from Asia to Americas over coming months..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 22 July
· Asia’s base oils premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices rises, holds well above year-earlier levels.· Asia’s base oils supply shows signs of rising in July 2024, at a time of year when demand is usually muted.· Rise in supply could help cover for plant maintenance work in China and India.· Rise in supply could replenish regional blenders' stocks, curbing urgency to seek additional volumes. · Singapore’s base oils exports extend strong rise in recent weeks, rebounding from slowdown in shipments in June 2024..· Taiwan's base oils exports show signs of rising sharply in July 2024 from previous month amid wave of large shipments throughout the month.· Most of the shipments move to southeast Asia and India, with only small volume bound for China..· South Korea’s base oils exports show signs of rising strongly in H1 July 2024, following slump in shipments in June 2024.· Shipments to India show signs of rising strongly, following slump in June 2024.· South Korea’s June base oils exports fall to eleven-month low despite lack of any scheduled plant maintenance work..· Exports fall even lower than levels when scheduled plant maintenance work was taking place.· Drop in exports points to refinery run-cuts or to stock-building.· Stock-building would leave additional supplies to clear at start of Q3 2024.· Run-cuts would leave the regional market with tighter-than-expected supply at the start of Q3 2024.· Exports fall in June 2024 despite firm base oils margins in April and May 2024.· Drop in exports follows simultaneous closure of arbitrage to India and China during Q2 2024.· Drop in exports could reflect stock-building as closed arbitrage cuts demand.· Drop in exports could instead reflect moves to cut run-rates in response to signs of weakening demand in April-May 2024.· Such moves would point to decisions based on changes in demand rather than decisions based on base oils margins..· South Korea’s base oils exports to Brazil rise to record-high in June 2024.· Pick-up in shipments to Brazil coincides with widening premium of US prices over Asia Group II prices, making arbitrage more feasible.· Shipments could be precursor for more sustained wave of exports from Asia to Americas over coming months..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 22 July