· Asia’s base oils supply shows signs of staying balanced for now, could start to rise in coming weeks following completion of maintenance work.· Signs of more shipments from Saudi Arabia moving to markets west of Suez Canal in April 2024 curb its supplies in Asia.· Arbitrage to move supplies from Asia to Americas/Europe stays hard to work.· Arbitrage to move US supplies to India stays feasible, even if less attractive than in Feb-March 2024.· South Korea’s base oils exports in April 2024 show signs of lagging levels in March 2024.· Exports could get a boost in May 2024 following the scheduled completion of plant maintenance in South Korea in H2 April 2024.· Taiwan’s base oils exports this month could exceed March 2024 levels if large cargo completes loading before month-end as scheduled..· Singapore’s base oils exports extend recovery in April 2024, following unusual slowdown in shipments in Q1 2024.· Singapore’s exports rise strongly to India over last four weeks, contrasting with steady flows to China and unusual slump in shipments to Indonesia..· Trend could reflect firmer demand from India for supplies that avoid risk of delays.· Shipments from Singapore to India include large volumes of supplies being re-exported from other markets.· Singapore’s imports over past week include rare shipment from Poland.· Shipment follows open arbitrage to move Group I base oils from Europe to Asia in Q1 2024.· Shipment coincides with persistently tight availability of Group I base oils in Asia..· Singapore’s exports to southeast Asia rebound in March 2024, contrasting with fall in shipments to China..· Trend highlights regional refiners’ focus on reducing their exposure to China and tapping growing demand in other markets instead.· Trend raises prospect of leaving China’s base oils supply more balanced and demand for overseas supplies steadier in Q2 2024.· China’s demand for supplies from overseas sources like Singapore fell in Q2 2023 as buyers first cleared a build-up of supplies in Q1 2023.· Singapore’s base oils imports from Qatar and Hong Kong surge in March 2024..· Rise in shipments coincides with falling US Group III prices and slowdown in shipments from Qatar to Europe in early 2024.· Lower US prices and ongoing logistical complications with shipments to Europe could spur extension of pick-up in flows of premium-grade base oils to Singapore.· Singapore’s March base oils imports include largest shipment from US in five months.· Any extension of that trend could add to regional supplies..· Most of Saudi Arabia’s base oils exports in April 2024 move to markets west of Suez Canal.· Shipments bound for India show signs of falling.· Prospect of rise in India’s base oils production capacity in coming year incentivizes overseas refiners to develop opportunities in other markets in anticipation of slowdown in demand from India.· Any extension of pick-up in shipments from Saudi Arabia to markets west of Suez Canal would leave the supplier better-positioned to manage any slowdown in demand from India. .Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 29 April
· Asia’s base oils supply shows signs of staying balanced for now, could start to rise in coming weeks following completion of maintenance work.· Signs of more shipments from Saudi Arabia moving to markets west of Suez Canal in April 2024 curb its supplies in Asia.· Arbitrage to move supplies from Asia to Americas/Europe stays hard to work.· Arbitrage to move US supplies to India stays feasible, even if less attractive than in Feb-March 2024.· South Korea’s base oils exports in April 2024 show signs of lagging levels in March 2024.· Exports could get a boost in May 2024 following the scheduled completion of plant maintenance in South Korea in H2 April 2024.· Taiwan’s base oils exports this month could exceed March 2024 levels if large cargo completes loading before month-end as scheduled..· Singapore’s base oils exports extend recovery in April 2024, following unusual slowdown in shipments in Q1 2024.· Singapore’s exports rise strongly to India over last four weeks, contrasting with steady flows to China and unusual slump in shipments to Indonesia..· Trend could reflect firmer demand from India for supplies that avoid risk of delays.· Shipments from Singapore to India include large volumes of supplies being re-exported from other markets.· Singapore’s imports over past week include rare shipment from Poland.· Shipment follows open arbitrage to move Group I base oils from Europe to Asia in Q1 2024.· Shipment coincides with persistently tight availability of Group I base oils in Asia..· Singapore’s exports to southeast Asia rebound in March 2024, contrasting with fall in shipments to China..· Trend highlights regional refiners’ focus on reducing their exposure to China and tapping growing demand in other markets instead.· Trend raises prospect of leaving China’s base oils supply more balanced and demand for overseas supplies steadier in Q2 2024.· China’s demand for supplies from overseas sources like Singapore fell in Q2 2023 as buyers first cleared a build-up of supplies in Q1 2023.· Singapore’s base oils imports from Qatar and Hong Kong surge in March 2024..· Rise in shipments coincides with falling US Group III prices and slowdown in shipments from Qatar to Europe in early 2024.· Lower US prices and ongoing logistical complications with shipments to Europe could spur extension of pick-up in flows of premium-grade base oils to Singapore.· Singapore’s March base oils imports include largest shipment from US in five months.· Any extension of that trend could add to regional supplies..· Most of Saudi Arabia’s base oils exports in April 2024 move to markets west of Suez Canal.· Shipments bound for India show signs of falling.· Prospect of rise in India’s base oils production capacity in coming year incentivizes overseas refiners to develop opportunities in other markets in anticipation of slowdown in demand from India.· Any extension of pick-up in shipments from Saudi Arabia to markets west of Suez Canal would leave the supplier better-positioned to manage any slowdown in demand from India. .Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 29 April