· Asia’s base oils price premium to gasoil holds steady-to-firm, especially for heavy grades.· Firm price premium to gasoil, and weaker gasoil premium to crude oil, incentivizes refiners to maintain or raise base oils output.· Arbitrage stays hard to work to India and Middle East, more feasible to China and to Americas.· Any arbitrage flows from US to Asia-Pacific region are unlikely before Q4 2024 at the earliest..· South Korea’s base oils exports show signs of recovering in July 2024 following slump in June 2024, with pick-up in shipments to India.· Taiwan’s base oils shipments rebound in July 2024 after slowdown the previous month.· Shipments from Taiwan show signs of rising in July 2024 to highest in six months, with less than 30% of the volume moving to China.· Rise in total exports from Taiwan magnifies rise in supplies bound for other markets like southeast Asia and India.· Last week's typhoon highlights Asia also faces risk of weather-related supply disruptions over coming months.· Singapore’s base oils exports show signs of rising sharply in July 2024 from previous month..· Rebound in shipments follows fall in Singapore’s June base oils exports to twenty-month low on steep dip in supplies to India and China..· Drop in shipments to India and China follows narrowing of the spread between FOB Asia and CFR prices in those markets in April and May, pointing to weaker demand.· Drop in shipments likely helped to slow any supply-build in those markets at end-Q2 2024..· China’s base oils exports dip to nine-month low in June 2024, adding to fall in region’s supplies last month..· China's exports show signs of staying low in July 2024, with Singapore’s imports from China staying lower than usual for a second month..· Combined fall in exports from Asia’s key suppliers in June 2024 cuts their total shipments to second-lowest since H1 2020..· Drop in shipments cushions impact of slower demand, leaves supply-demand fundamentals better balanced at start of Q3 2024.· Singapore takes delivery in past week of another large cargo from US..· Increasingly regular flow of large shipments from US to Singapore adds to region’s supply.· Firm shipment volumes from Saudi Arabia in June 2024 also cushion impact of drop in supplies from key Asia-Pacific suppliers..· China’s June base oils imports rise, lifting country's total supply to three-month high..· Rise in supply raises prospect of build-up of surplus volumes in China at start of Q3 2024.· Pick-up in shipments to China from key sources like Singapore in July 2024 would add to those supplies.· Rise in China’s base oils supply points either to pick-up in demand or pick-up in stocks.· Any pick-up in stocks would trigger subsequent moves to work down existing supplies.· China's firm domestic Group II prices relative to gasoil and relative to FOB NE Asia prices points to improvement in demand, which would limit stock-build..· Key outlets in Asia see surge in delivery of shipments from Qatar in June 2024 to highest in more than five years..· Rise in imports could reflect pick-up in flows from Qatar after slowdown in first five months of 2024.· Rise in imports could reflect shipment of larger portion of supplies to Asia, where Group III prices held firmer relative to US and Europe in Q2 2024..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 29 July.China’s June base oils imports rise.Global premium-grade imports from Mideast Gulf fall in May.Saudi Arabia’s June Yanbu/Jeddah base oil exports slip
· Asia’s base oils price premium to gasoil holds steady-to-firm, especially for heavy grades.· Firm price premium to gasoil, and weaker gasoil premium to crude oil, incentivizes refiners to maintain or raise base oils output.· Arbitrage stays hard to work to India and Middle East, more feasible to China and to Americas.· Any arbitrage flows from US to Asia-Pacific region are unlikely before Q4 2024 at the earliest..· South Korea’s base oils exports show signs of recovering in July 2024 following slump in June 2024, with pick-up in shipments to India.· Taiwan’s base oils shipments rebound in July 2024 after slowdown the previous month.· Shipments from Taiwan show signs of rising in July 2024 to highest in six months, with less than 30% of the volume moving to China.· Rise in total exports from Taiwan magnifies rise in supplies bound for other markets like southeast Asia and India.· Last week's typhoon highlights Asia also faces risk of weather-related supply disruptions over coming months.· Singapore’s base oils exports show signs of rising sharply in July 2024 from previous month..· Rebound in shipments follows fall in Singapore’s June base oils exports to twenty-month low on steep dip in supplies to India and China..· Drop in shipments to India and China follows narrowing of the spread between FOB Asia and CFR prices in those markets in April and May, pointing to weaker demand.· Drop in shipments likely helped to slow any supply-build in those markets at end-Q2 2024..· China’s base oils exports dip to nine-month low in June 2024, adding to fall in region’s supplies last month..· China's exports show signs of staying low in July 2024, with Singapore’s imports from China staying lower than usual for a second month..· Combined fall in exports from Asia’s key suppliers in June 2024 cuts their total shipments to second-lowest since H1 2020..· Drop in shipments cushions impact of slower demand, leaves supply-demand fundamentals better balanced at start of Q3 2024.· Singapore takes delivery in past week of another large cargo from US..· Increasingly regular flow of large shipments from US to Singapore adds to region’s supply.· Firm shipment volumes from Saudi Arabia in June 2024 also cushion impact of drop in supplies from key Asia-Pacific suppliers..· China’s June base oils imports rise, lifting country's total supply to three-month high..· Rise in supply raises prospect of build-up of surplus volumes in China at start of Q3 2024.· Pick-up in shipments to China from key sources like Singapore in July 2024 would add to those supplies.· Rise in China’s base oils supply points either to pick-up in demand or pick-up in stocks.· Any pick-up in stocks would trigger subsequent moves to work down existing supplies.· China's firm domestic Group II prices relative to gasoil and relative to FOB NE Asia prices points to improvement in demand, which would limit stock-build..· Key outlets in Asia see surge in delivery of shipments from Qatar in June 2024 to highest in more than five years..· Rise in imports could reflect pick-up in flows from Qatar after slowdown in first five months of 2024.· Rise in imports could reflect shipment of larger portion of supplies to Asia, where Group III prices held firmer relative to US and Europe in Q2 2024..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 29 July.China’s June base oils imports rise.Global premium-grade imports from Mideast Gulf fall in May.Saudi Arabia’s June Yanbu/Jeddah base oil exports slip