· China’s Shandong diesel premium to crude oil extends slide to lowest in almost a year.· China’s diesel demand faces seasonal slowdown.· Low diesel demand and low diesel premium to crude incentivize Chinese refiners to cut run-rates or boost output of other products like base oils.· India’s retail diesel prices maintain steep premium to discounted feedstock prices, incentivizing continuation of high refinery run-rates.· Asia base oils supply in Q2 2023 more than sufficient to cover regional demand even with round of plant maintenance throughout region.· Regional plant maintenance work set to be much lighter in Q3 2023.· China’s base oils supply likely to continue to rise through Q3 2023, following gradual pick-up in output in Q2 2023.· Japan’s base oils output holds relatively firm in May even with plant maintenance work..· Steady output adds to signs of sufficient supply in Asia-Pacific throughout Q2 2023, coincides with firm base oils margins.· Thai Oil’s base oils unit sees May base oils exports rise to highest in more than a year in response to higher output and lower domestic demand..· Trend adds additional supplies to regional market, where Chinese demand remains weaker than usual, forcing shipments to find alternative outlets.· Trend likely to extend into Q3 2023 unless base oils output falls.· Thailand’s base oils output extends gradual fall in May even amid firm base oils margins..· Strength of base oils margins partly reflects avoidance of large supply-build through lower production.· Refiners would need to maintain same strategy over coming months, even as firm margins incentivize higher production. · India’s May base oils output stays higher than usual as refiners maintain high run-rates to tap benefit of strong fuel margins and unusually low feedstock costs.· Trend set to continue, with base oils output set to rise further when new production capacity comes on-line.· India’s firm base oils output and import volumes exceed country’s lube consumption, leaving blenders well supplied and facing little urgency to procure extra volumes..· Pick-up in Singapore’s base oils exports to India in June contrasts with lower volumes to China, coincides with ongoing wave of shipments from US to India.· Ongoing wave of overseas shipments to India add to country’s plentiful supply.· India takes delivery of unusually large shipment from Thailand in June, adding to supply and to signs of weak Chinese demand..Global base oils – week of July 3: Price outlook - margins.Contact us for more information about the data for these stories
· China’s Shandong diesel premium to crude oil extends slide to lowest in almost a year.· China’s diesel demand faces seasonal slowdown.· Low diesel demand and low diesel premium to crude incentivize Chinese refiners to cut run-rates or boost output of other products like base oils.· India’s retail diesel prices maintain steep premium to discounted feedstock prices, incentivizing continuation of high refinery run-rates.· Asia base oils supply in Q2 2023 more than sufficient to cover regional demand even with round of plant maintenance throughout region.· Regional plant maintenance work set to be much lighter in Q3 2023.· China’s base oils supply likely to continue to rise through Q3 2023, following gradual pick-up in output in Q2 2023.· Japan’s base oils output holds relatively firm in May even with plant maintenance work..· Steady output adds to signs of sufficient supply in Asia-Pacific throughout Q2 2023, coincides with firm base oils margins.· Thai Oil’s base oils unit sees May base oils exports rise to highest in more than a year in response to higher output and lower domestic demand..· Trend adds additional supplies to regional market, where Chinese demand remains weaker than usual, forcing shipments to find alternative outlets.· Trend likely to extend into Q3 2023 unless base oils output falls.· Thailand’s base oils output extends gradual fall in May even amid firm base oils margins..· Strength of base oils margins partly reflects avoidance of large supply-build through lower production.· Refiners would need to maintain same strategy over coming months, even as firm margins incentivize higher production. · India’s May base oils output stays higher than usual as refiners maintain high run-rates to tap benefit of strong fuel margins and unusually low feedstock costs.· Trend set to continue, with base oils output set to rise further when new production capacity comes on-line.· India’s firm base oils output and import volumes exceed country’s lube consumption, leaving blenders well supplied and facing little urgency to procure extra volumes..· Pick-up in Singapore’s base oils exports to India in June contrasts with lower volumes to China, coincides with ongoing wave of shipments from US to India.· Ongoing wave of overseas shipments to India add to country’s plentiful supply.· India takes delivery of unusually large shipment from Thailand in June, adding to supply and to signs of weak Chinese demand..Global base oils – week of July 3: Price outlook - margins.Contact us for more information about the data for these stories