· Asia’s base oils price-premium to feedstock/diesel prices holds firm in narrower range since end-Aug 2024.· Firm base oils margins incentivize refiners to raise or maintain higher output.· Base oils margins stay at higher levels even after holding firm since start of Q2 2024.· Sustained strength of margins points to ongoing supply-tightness even with incentive for refiners to raise output.· Margins stay high even with expected completion of maintenance work at key base oils unit.· Asia’s base oils prices continue to strengthen versus prices in other key markets like US and Europe.· Firmer price differential makes arbitrage less attractive, raises prospect of more supplies staying in Asia-Pacific region..· Asia’s base oils exports likely to improve in Nov 2024.· Asia’s base oils exports likely stayed lower than usual in Oct 2024 after falling in Sept 2024 to lowest since mid-2020..· Fall in shipments coincides with seasonal rise in regional demand.· Fall in shipments and firmer demand squeeze supply in markets like southeast Asia and India.· Fall in shipments curbs availability for more distant regions or need to move large volumes to more distant regions..· South Korea’s base oils output falls to five-month low in Sept 2024.· Output falls less steeply than slump in South Korea’s base oils exports in Sept 2024.· Surplus of output over exports duly rises to three-year high..· Rise in surplus supply in Sept 2024 should help to limit further drop in South Korea’s base oils exports in Oct 2024 during plant maintenance work.· South Korea’s base oils output and exports should start to revive in Nov 2024 following completion of maintenance work..· Japan’s base oils output edges up in Sept 2024, holds close to lowest since late-2021..· Sustained fall in Japan’s base oils output boosts requirements for imports, slashes exports..· Rising imports of premium-grade base oils and falling exports of Group I base oils cuts supply for other markets..· China’s base oils output shows signs of trending higher in Oct 2024 even with closure of key Group I base oils unit in the country.· Trend raises prospect of trimming country’s requirements for premium-grade base oils, supporting demand for overseas supplies of Group I base oils..· Singapore’s base oils exports show signs of holding firm at typical levels in Oct 2024..· Steady exports limit any additional volumes to balance out drop in South Korea’s base oils output in Oct 2024..· India’s base oils output unexpectedly falls in Sept 2024..· Output recovers in Aug 2024 after production dips to three-year low in July 2024 because of plant maintenance.· Extension of recovery goes into reverse in Sept 2024, pointing to additional production issues.· Lower output compounds India’s tight supply-demand balance, highlights growing need for additional supplies from domestic or overseas sources..· Taiwan’s base oils exports face delays in past week as another typhoon strikes the island.· Exports in Oct 2024 already far exceed shipment volumes in Sept 2024.· Any delayed shipments set to boost export volumes in Nov 2024.· Base oils exports from Saudi Arabia shows signs of slowing in Oct 2024 from previous month.· Slowdown in shipments would exacerbate impact of expected fall in shipments from South Korea to outlets like India in Oct 2024..Japan’s Sept base oils supply stays low.India’s Sept base oils supply shortfall narrows.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 Nov
· Asia’s base oils price-premium to feedstock/diesel prices holds firm in narrower range since end-Aug 2024.· Firm base oils margins incentivize refiners to raise or maintain higher output.· Base oils margins stay at higher levels even after holding firm since start of Q2 2024.· Sustained strength of margins points to ongoing supply-tightness even with incentive for refiners to raise output.· Margins stay high even with expected completion of maintenance work at key base oils unit.· Asia’s base oils prices continue to strengthen versus prices in other key markets like US and Europe.· Firmer price differential makes arbitrage less attractive, raises prospect of more supplies staying in Asia-Pacific region..· Asia’s base oils exports likely to improve in Nov 2024.· Asia’s base oils exports likely stayed lower than usual in Oct 2024 after falling in Sept 2024 to lowest since mid-2020..· Fall in shipments coincides with seasonal rise in regional demand.· Fall in shipments and firmer demand squeeze supply in markets like southeast Asia and India.· Fall in shipments curbs availability for more distant regions or need to move large volumes to more distant regions..· South Korea’s base oils output falls to five-month low in Sept 2024.· Output falls less steeply than slump in South Korea’s base oils exports in Sept 2024.· Surplus of output over exports duly rises to three-year high..· Rise in surplus supply in Sept 2024 should help to limit further drop in South Korea’s base oils exports in Oct 2024 during plant maintenance work.· South Korea’s base oils output and exports should start to revive in Nov 2024 following completion of maintenance work..· Japan’s base oils output edges up in Sept 2024, holds close to lowest since late-2021..· Sustained fall in Japan’s base oils output boosts requirements for imports, slashes exports..· Rising imports of premium-grade base oils and falling exports of Group I base oils cuts supply for other markets..· China’s base oils output shows signs of trending higher in Oct 2024 even with closure of key Group I base oils unit in the country.· Trend raises prospect of trimming country’s requirements for premium-grade base oils, supporting demand for overseas supplies of Group I base oils..· Singapore’s base oils exports show signs of holding firm at typical levels in Oct 2024..· Steady exports limit any additional volumes to balance out drop in South Korea’s base oils output in Oct 2024..· India’s base oils output unexpectedly falls in Sept 2024..· Output recovers in Aug 2024 after production dips to three-year low in July 2024 because of plant maintenance.· Extension of recovery goes into reverse in Sept 2024, pointing to additional production issues.· Lower output compounds India’s tight supply-demand balance, highlights growing need for additional supplies from domestic or overseas sources..· Taiwan’s base oils exports face delays in past week as another typhoon strikes the island.· Exports in Oct 2024 already far exceed shipment volumes in Sept 2024.· Any delayed shipments set to boost export volumes in Nov 2024.· Base oils exports from Saudi Arabia shows signs of slowing in Oct 2024 from previous month.· Slowdown in shipments would exacerbate impact of expected fall in shipments from South Korea to outlets like India in Oct 2024..Japan’s Sept base oils supply stays low.India’s Sept base oils supply shortfall narrows.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 Nov
