· Asia’s base oils demand likely to get support from expectations of steady-to-higher prices amid rising crude/diesel prices.· Demand could get further support as blenders seek to secure sufficient supplies to cover expected rise in lube demand..· Asia’s lube demand likely to rise strongly at end-Q1 2024 before falling at start of Q2 2024..· Seasonal rise in demand coincides with signs of tighter surplus base oils supply amid scheduled and unplanned plant shutdowns in the Asia-Pacific region.· Stronger demand and tighter supply could prompt blenders to seek to maximise delivery of term supplies or seek additional supplies.· Stronger demand and tighter supply could trigger rise in buying interest for supplies from other regions..· China’s domestic Group II base oils premium to fob Asia prices steadies after rising strongly since early Dec 2023.· Firmer premium coincides with signs of strong pick-up in shipments from key overseas sources to China in Jan 2024.· Rising Group II premium points to domestic demand that is strong enough to absorb healthy availability of domestic supplies and rising volumes from overseas sources.· Strength of Group II premium to fob Asia prices is relative – it was at much higher levels in Q1 2023. .· Singapore’s December base oils exports to China hold firm even as total exports fall..· Trend adds to signs of pick-up in Chinese demand in recent months.· Singapore’s base oils exports to China extend rise through Jan 2024..· Extent/sustainability of Chinese demand after lunar new year holidays set to have widespread impact on regional supplies.· Chinese demand was weaker than expected after lunar new year holidays in Q1 2023..· China’s base oils imports fall in 2023 to lowest in at least seven years..· Trend highlights China’s growing self-sufficiency and weaker demand, and importance for regional refiners to target other markets instead..· Pakistan’s November lube demand rises for fifth month, while base oils supply falls..· Trend raises prospect of rise in demand for base oils supplies to meet recovery in lube consumption.· Slump in Pakistan’s Group I base oils output adds to signs of rising demand for premium-grade base oils.· Rising lube demand and rising demand for premium-grade base oils likely to benefit South Korean refiners, whose share of Pakistan’s base oils imports surged in 2023..· India’s demand for Group II supplies from Asia could rise amid signs of slowdown in shipments from Saudi Arabia.· India’s demand for very-light grade base oils cargoes could rise as buyers seek to lock in supplies before expected rise in prices.· Demand could ease once supplies reflect higher regional diesel prices..Global base oils - week of Jan 29: Price outlook - margins.Global base oils - week of Jan 29: Price outlook - arbitrage.Global base oils - week of Jan 29: Demand outlook
· Asia’s base oils demand likely to get support from expectations of steady-to-higher prices amid rising crude/diesel prices.· Demand could get further support as blenders seek to secure sufficient supplies to cover expected rise in lube demand..· Asia’s lube demand likely to rise strongly at end-Q1 2024 before falling at start of Q2 2024..· Seasonal rise in demand coincides with signs of tighter surplus base oils supply amid scheduled and unplanned plant shutdowns in the Asia-Pacific region.· Stronger demand and tighter supply could prompt blenders to seek to maximise delivery of term supplies or seek additional supplies.· Stronger demand and tighter supply could trigger rise in buying interest for supplies from other regions..· China’s domestic Group II base oils premium to fob Asia prices steadies after rising strongly since early Dec 2023.· Firmer premium coincides with signs of strong pick-up in shipments from key overseas sources to China in Jan 2024.· Rising Group II premium points to domestic demand that is strong enough to absorb healthy availability of domestic supplies and rising volumes from overseas sources.· Strength of Group II premium to fob Asia prices is relative – it was at much higher levels in Q1 2023. .· Singapore’s December base oils exports to China hold firm even as total exports fall..· Trend adds to signs of pick-up in Chinese demand in recent months.· Singapore’s base oils exports to China extend rise through Jan 2024..· Extent/sustainability of Chinese demand after lunar new year holidays set to have widespread impact on regional supplies.· Chinese demand was weaker than expected after lunar new year holidays in Q1 2023..· China’s base oils imports fall in 2023 to lowest in at least seven years..· Trend highlights China’s growing self-sufficiency and weaker demand, and importance for regional refiners to target other markets instead..· Pakistan’s November lube demand rises for fifth month, while base oils supply falls..· Trend raises prospect of rise in demand for base oils supplies to meet recovery in lube consumption.· Slump in Pakistan’s Group I base oils output adds to signs of rising demand for premium-grade base oils.· Rising lube demand and rising demand for premium-grade base oils likely to benefit South Korean refiners, whose share of Pakistan’s base oils imports surged in 2023..· India’s demand for Group II supplies from Asia could rise amid signs of slowdown in shipments from Saudi Arabia.· India’s demand for very-light grade base oils cargoes could rise as buyers seek to lock in supplies before expected rise in prices.· Demand could ease once supplies reflect higher regional diesel prices..Global base oils - week of Jan 29: Price outlook - margins.Global base oils - week of Jan 29: Price outlook - arbitrage.Global base oils - week of Jan 29: Demand outlook