· India’s retail diesel premium to discounted crude stays high – incentivizing refiners to maintain high run-rates.· China’s Shandong diesel premium to crude steadies after sliding to two-month low even amid recovery in diesel consumption.· China’s Shandong diesel premium to discounted crude much higher.· Refinery run rates stay lower in China’s Shandong and Japan, higher in US..· Overlapping timing of plant maintenance in South Korea and Spain in Q2 2023 likely to tighten Group III base oils supply.· Plant maintenance in China caps recovery in output in that market.· Plant maintenance in Japan likely to curb its exports over coming months.· China’s March base oils output improves from February, stays low.· China’s low base oils output mirrors muted recovery in manufacturing activity.· China’s low base oils output continues to support firmer demand for overseas supplies.· Supply from China starts to show up in more places, including Latin American markets like Argentina – even with output at low levels.· Any stronger revival in China’s base oils output would curb requirements for overseas supplies and increase availability for overseas markets.· Indonesia’s base oils exports show signs of staying lower than usual in February.· Base oils exports from Asia show signs of extending recovery in February, replenishing buyers’ stocks and curbing urgency to procure more supplies.· Rise in February exports contrasts with signs of lower production in Asia-Pacific.· Trend would boost buyers’ stocks, cut refiners’ stocks.· Trend would precede pick-up in plant-maintenance work in Asia over following months.· Thailand’s base oils supply lags demand in February, raising prospect of stock replenishment / more muted urgency to clear supplies over following months..· Singapore’s four-week base oils exports to China fall sharply after surging in 1H March.· Singapore’s four-week base oils exports to India rebound to highest in more than a year after falling throughout March.· Singapore’s base oils exports to southeast Asia hold firm over past four weeks after dipping earlier in the year.· Trend points to redirection of more shipments to India and southeast Asia and away from China.· India continues to take delivery of low volume of US supplies in March amid unusually light flow of arbitrage shipments so far this year.· More US supplies move to Mexico instead in Q1 2023.· Arbitrage flows from US to India show signs of increasing in recent weeks..Americas/EMEA base oils – week of Apr 10: Supply outlook
· India’s retail diesel premium to discounted crude stays high – incentivizing refiners to maintain high run-rates.· China’s Shandong diesel premium to crude steadies after sliding to two-month low even amid recovery in diesel consumption.· China’s Shandong diesel premium to discounted crude much higher.· Refinery run rates stay lower in China’s Shandong and Japan, higher in US..· Overlapping timing of plant maintenance in South Korea and Spain in Q2 2023 likely to tighten Group III base oils supply.· Plant maintenance in China caps recovery in output in that market.· Plant maintenance in Japan likely to curb its exports over coming months.· China’s March base oils output improves from February, stays low.· China’s low base oils output mirrors muted recovery in manufacturing activity.· China’s low base oils output continues to support firmer demand for overseas supplies.· Supply from China starts to show up in more places, including Latin American markets like Argentina – even with output at low levels.· Any stronger revival in China’s base oils output would curb requirements for overseas supplies and increase availability for overseas markets.· Indonesia’s base oils exports show signs of staying lower than usual in February.· Base oils exports from Asia show signs of extending recovery in February, replenishing buyers’ stocks and curbing urgency to procure more supplies.· Rise in February exports contrasts with signs of lower production in Asia-Pacific.· Trend would boost buyers’ stocks, cut refiners’ stocks.· Trend would precede pick-up in plant-maintenance work in Asia over following months.· Thailand’s base oils supply lags demand in February, raising prospect of stock replenishment / more muted urgency to clear supplies over following months..· Singapore’s four-week base oils exports to China fall sharply after surging in 1H March.· Singapore’s four-week base oils exports to India rebound to highest in more than a year after falling throughout March.· Singapore’s base oils exports to southeast Asia hold firm over past four weeks after dipping earlier in the year.· Trend points to redirection of more shipments to India and southeast Asia and away from China.· India continues to take delivery of low volume of US supplies in March amid unusually light flow of arbitrage shipments so far this year.· More US supplies move to Mexico instead in Q1 2023.· Arbitrage flows from US to India show signs of increasing in recent weeks..Americas/EMEA base oils – week of Apr 10: Supply outlook