· Asia’s base oils demand likely to face downward pressure from balanced-to-weak supply-demand fundamentals.· Recent crude-price volatility could incentivize buyers to continue to procure sufficient volumes to cover requirements rather than to hold back.· Buyers could be wary of making major adjustments to their procurement plans, with speed of recent rise in crude oil prices highlighting the volatility of prices. · Buyers face little incentive to procure additional supplies or build stocks in face of seasonal slowdown in demand over coming months and expectations of sufficient supply even with higher crude oil prices.· Expectations that supply will improve later in Q4 2024 add to attraction of holding back for now..· Asia’s lube demand faces seasonal slowdown over coming months and at start of next year, before recovery from around middle of Q1 2025..· Slowdown in demand curbs impact of maintenance work at several plants in Asia at start of Q4 2024..· China’s base oils prices hold firm versus domestic diesel and versus FOB Asia prices, pointing to still-firm supply-demand fundamentals..· More feasible arbitrage to move cargoes from Asia to China could reflect short-term support from seasonal pick-up in domestic demand at end-Q3 2024.· Any extension of the price trend, along with higher domestic supply, would point to a more sustained rise in demand..· Singapore’s base oils exports over last four weeks rise strongly to southeast Asia; shipments to India hold firm and fall to China..· Any extension of trend could point to slowdown in China’s demand for overseas supplies following rise in domestic output and seasonal pick-up in demand at end-Q3.· Any extension of trend points to still-firm requirements in southeast Asia..· Thailand’s lube demand falls in Aug 2024 for first time in five months, pointing to more mixed consumption in southeast Asia market..· Any extension of the trend in one of the region’s largest markets would increase the importance of demand holding firmer in India and China to maintain balanced fundamentals.· Thailand’s falling lube demand contrasts with sustained rise in country’s demand for Group I base oils from its domestic refiners.· Trend likely reflects tightening availability of Group I base oils in rest of Asia.· Trend shows signs of extending to rest of Asia.· Thailand’s base oils exports rise in Aug 2024 for third time in fourth month, with shipments to China climbing to 18-month high..· Rise in overseas demand for Thailand’s base oils could get further boost following planned shutdown of Group I plant in China in Oct 2024.· Slump in Japan’s base oils production complicates that country’s ability to respond to any subsequent pick-up in demand from China.· Dynamic leaves Group I producers in markets like Thailand as the key sources for any additional requirements from China..· Japan’s base oils demand for overseas supplies could rise in the coming months in response to unexpectedly tight domestic base oils supply.· Japan’s seasonal dip in consumption in Aug 2024 cushions impact of drop in domestic supply..· Lower consumption in Aug 2024 still accounts for unusually large share of country’s domestic supply..· Prospect of seasonal pick-up in consumption from month of September could leave supply struggling to cover domestic requirements..· India’s base oils demand could get support from seasonal pick-up in lube consumption in Q4 2024, blenders’ lower stocks and signs of still-low imports in Sept 2024.· India’s imports show signs of slowing from Singapore, US, and Taiwan in Sept 2024.· CFR India Group II N150 price premium to FOB NE Asia price stays at highest since Apr 2024..· CFR India Group II N500 price stays at unusual discount to FOB NE Asia price.· Price trends point to still-firm buying interest in Group II light grades, more muted demand for heavy grades.· Prospect of dip in supplies from key source in South Korea in Oct 2024 could prompt India's buyers to turn more to other sources like Saudi Arabia.· Demand for supplies from US could stay more muted for now, with US base oils prices still at premium to CFR India prices even after recent fall in US prices..Asia’s lube demand faces Q4 slowdown.Thailand’s August lube demand falls.Japan’s August base oils output falls.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 30 Sept
· Asia’s base oils demand likely to face downward pressure from balanced-to-weak supply-demand fundamentals.· Recent crude-price volatility could incentivize buyers to continue to procure sufficient volumes to cover requirements rather than to hold back.· Buyers could be wary of making major adjustments to their procurement plans, with speed of recent rise in crude oil prices highlighting the volatility of prices. · Buyers face little incentive to procure additional supplies or build stocks in face of seasonal slowdown in demand over coming months and expectations of sufficient supply even with higher crude oil prices.· Expectations that supply will improve later in Q4 2024 add to attraction of holding back for now..· Asia’s lube demand faces seasonal slowdown over coming months and at start of next year, before recovery from around middle of Q1 2025..· Slowdown in demand curbs impact of maintenance work at several plants in Asia at start of Q4 2024..· China’s base oils prices hold firm versus domestic diesel and versus FOB Asia prices, pointing to still-firm supply-demand fundamentals..· More feasible arbitrage to move cargoes from Asia to China could reflect short-term support from seasonal pick-up in domestic demand at end-Q3 2024.· Any extension of the price trend, along with higher domestic supply, would point to a more sustained rise in demand..· Singapore’s base oils exports over last four weeks rise strongly to southeast Asia; shipments to India hold firm and fall to China..· Any extension of trend could point to slowdown in China’s demand for overseas supplies following rise in domestic output and seasonal pick-up in demand at end-Q3.· Any extension of trend points to still-firm requirements in southeast Asia..· Thailand’s lube demand falls in Aug 2024 for first time in five months, pointing to more mixed consumption in southeast Asia market..· Any extension of the trend in one of the region’s largest markets would increase the importance of demand holding firmer in India and China to maintain balanced fundamentals.· Thailand’s falling lube demand contrasts with sustained rise in country’s demand for Group I base oils from its domestic refiners.· Trend likely reflects tightening availability of Group I base oils in rest of Asia.· Trend shows signs of extending to rest of Asia.· Thailand’s base oils exports rise in Aug 2024 for third time in fourth month, with shipments to China climbing to 18-month high..· Rise in overseas demand for Thailand’s base oils could get further boost following planned shutdown of Group I plant in China in Oct 2024.· Slump in Japan’s base oils production complicates that country’s ability to respond to any subsequent pick-up in demand from China.· Dynamic leaves Group I producers in markets like Thailand as the key sources for any additional requirements from China..· Japan’s base oils demand for overseas supplies could rise in the coming months in response to unexpectedly tight domestic base oils supply.· Japan’s seasonal dip in consumption in Aug 2024 cushions impact of drop in domestic supply..· Lower consumption in Aug 2024 still accounts for unusually large share of country’s domestic supply..· Prospect of seasonal pick-up in consumption from month of September could leave supply struggling to cover domestic requirements..· India’s base oils demand could get support from seasonal pick-up in lube consumption in Q4 2024, blenders’ lower stocks and signs of still-low imports in Sept 2024.· India’s imports show signs of slowing from Singapore, US, and Taiwan in Sept 2024.· CFR India Group II N150 price premium to FOB NE Asia price stays at highest since Apr 2024..· CFR India Group II N500 price stays at unusual discount to FOB NE Asia price.· Price trends point to still-firm buying interest in Group II light grades, more muted demand for heavy grades.· Prospect of dip in supplies from key source in South Korea in Oct 2024 could prompt India's buyers to turn more to other sources like Saudi Arabia.· Demand for supplies from US could stay more muted for now, with US base oils prices still at premium to CFR India prices even after recent fall in US prices..Asia’s lube demand faces Q4 slowdown.Thailand’s August lube demand falls.Japan’s August base oils output falls.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 30 Sept
